The EFF will perform well, but it will not surpass the DA, political analyst Goodenough Mashego said on Tuesday.
Mashego predicted that the EFF would go above 50 seats due to a predicted huge voter turnout.
He, however, said he didn’t think the Red Berets would get more than 50 seats in Parliament, saying anything beyond 58 would be a stretch.
“The DA will obviously shed some seats. It has been on a downward spiral since 2014 when it shrunk marginally. I see them going below 70 from their current 84.
“If the EFF was to become official opposition that would be exactly what it remains, official opposition. The ANC would not coalesce with them but rather the DA for a liberal democratic coalition.
“An ANC below 50% is only good if new small parties nibble a sizeable chunk of EFF and DA votes. If its loss benefits bigger parties such as IFP, DA and EFF, then it’s a headache because together with small parties they (opposition parties) can form a government. And that means the ANC will need to make serious concessions to govern,” Mashego said.
He was responding to the EFF’s statement that post-May 29 elections, it would be announced as the country’s official opposition.
The party’s deputy president, Floyd Shivambu, during an interview on Monday, said his organisation would garner more votes in the May 29 general elections.
This, he said, was due to the phenomenal growth he has witnessed in the party in all regions across South Africa.
Furthermore, Shivambu said as the organisation they were never shaken by the establishment of the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP) as they have all their ducks in a row.
Mashego said should the current governing party get below 50%, it wouldn’t form a sustainable government with small parties.
“It can’t form one with the EFF unless it concedes beyond its ability to remain stable. In a coalition horse-trading the EFF won’t talk cardinal pillars but ministries. And ministries is how the ANC dispenses patronage which it is not prepared to trade.
“With the DA it will need to commit to not coalescing with smaller parties in the Western Cape to make life difficult for the DA there. The ANC will need to abandon its future natural allies in local government to get the DA’s hand in marriage,” he explained.
Mashego, however, warned that that scenario would empower the DA and weaken the ANC, adding that might be the only throw of the dice the ANC has.
The Star