Pretoria - Eskom is set to push ahead with procuring 9 600MW of nuclear power before the end of the year, despite a new draft integrated resource plan sketching a base-case in which the first nuclear reactor would be required only by 2037.
The Department of Energy released the draft yesterday as the starting point for a public consultation process which is expected to culminate in the adoption early next year of the first revised IRP since 2010.
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The department said roadshows, kicking off in major cities in the second week of next month, would invite public comment on the assumptions used about economic growth, electricity demand, prices of energy commodities and carbon emissions, among others, the base case developed from these and various alternative scenarios to be tested.
But Eskom group executive for generation Matshela Koko said it planned to forge ahead with nuclear procurement and the delayed request for proposals (RFP) would be out before the end of the year, so that the first reactor could be commissioned by 2025.
Previously, Energy Minister Tina Joemat-Pettersson had announced the RFP would be released by the end of September, but it was delayed after the Cabinet approved a plan for Eskom to become the procurer of nuclear, as well as the owner and operator. Eskom has since said it expects to be able to fund the deal off its own balance sheet.
Asked to explain the discrepancy between the Department of Energy’s base case timeline and Eskom’s plans to procure nuclear by 2025, Koko said if the addition of new renewable energy sources was constrained - as was the case in the 2010 IRP to a maximum of 1 000MW of new capacity per annum - and the country chose to implement a carbon budget, then there was a requirement for 1 359MW of nuclear capacity by 2025, equal to one reactor.
This would be followed by 2 718MW by 2027 and another reactor by 2030, ultimately reaching more than 20 000MW by 2050.
Koko said after the briefing the “writing is on the wall” as far as constraining renewables was concerned because it wasn’t possible to expand the capacity of the grid fast enough to accommodate the maximum possible rate of new energy supply from renewable sources.
“You see, you can’t roll out renewables as much as you can, up to 150 000MW, the grid will not allow that. So inevitably you’ll have to constrain it, because you can’t roll out the grid quicker and build 7 000MW of renewables in a year,” Koko said.
“So the writing is on the wall and I think the debate on whether we restrict renewables or not is a moot debate, because it will just happen, whether we wish for it or not.”
This meant the public consultation on the renewable question would be “an easy debate”.
“The real debate is the one that says do you have a carbon budget or not? And if the answer on the carbon budget is yes, then you need a reactor operational by 2025,” Koko said. To achieve this, procurement of nuclear would have to begin immediately, despite the fact that the new IRP would be finalised only next year.
Eskom’s failure to connect new renewable energy projects to the grid has already resulted in it having to pay for electricity it contracted to purchase without being able to use it. Critics have argued this is one of the reasons there should be an independent system operator for the grid, so that Eskom is not able to dictate the pace at which new renewable energy projects can come online.
Joemat-Pettersson said the department would continue to put policy options on the table, but the Cabinet had agreed that Eskom should be the procurer for nuclear.
PRETORIA NEWS