Johannesburg - South Africa’s ruling party is at risk of
further splits amid a battle for senior positions in the African National
Congress, Deputy Secretary-General Jessie Duarte said.
There is intense jostling to replace President Jacob
Zuma, 74, as the head of the party and for other top positions, despite rules
forbidding active campaigning, Duarte, 63, said in an interview in
Johannesburg. The concern is that the losing group could break away to form a
new party, as has happened in the lead up to or after previous ANC elective
conferences, she said.
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The ANC’s leadership contest comes at a time when the
party risks losing the majority it’s held in every vote since the first
multi-racial ballot in 1994. A split could drag its support down to below 50
percent in the 2019 national elections, giving an opportunity for the
opposition to join forces to take power. Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa, 64,
and Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, 68, a former African Union Chairwoman and the
president’s ex-wife, are seen by analysts as the main contenders to lead the
ANC.
“Since 2007, every ANC conference has led to one or other
split,” Duarte said. There could be “a spoilers’ breakaway after this
conference,” she said.
Breakaway parties
Two major breakaway groups have cut into the ANC support
base over the past decade. Some members who supported Thabo Mbeki at the 2007
conference formed the Congress of the People after Zuma took control of the
party, while Julius Malema, its youth wing leader, formed the Economic Freedom
Fighters after being expelled from the ANC in 2012.
While Cope’s backing has dwindled, the EFF garnered about
8 percent of the vote in local-government elections last year. That helped
slash the ruling party’s national support to 54 percent, its worst-ever
electoral performance, and for opposition parties to take control of the
capital, Pretoria, and economic hub, Johannesburg.
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The ANC needs to manage the electoral contest better and
should consider allowing a limited time for candidates to campaign, Duarte
said. Proposals such as introducing an electoral college to handle the internal
vote will be discussed at a policy meeting in June, she said.
Active lobbying
While rules still prohibit campaigning, groups continue
to push for their candidates for the December election.
“People are lobbying, there’s no doubt,” Duarte said.
“Lobby groups are all over the country, big ones, small ones, bold ones, all of
that is happening.”
The ANC’s women’s league has publicly backed Dlamini-Zuma
to succeed Zuma, while the Congress of South African Trade Unions, the
country’s largest labor group, as well as Jackson Mthembu, the party’s
parliamentary chief whip, have said they support Ramaphosa. Other leaders
expected to contest the race for the top positions include Treasurer-General
Zweli Mkhize and Baleka Mbete, the speaker of Parliament and ANC chairwoman.
To read more about the race for the ANC leadership
contest, click here
The frontrunner to replace Zuma will probably only become
clear in the second half of the year, Duarte said.
“It’s anybody’s guess right now,” she said. “In August
and September, the true madness sets in, that’s where hardcore lobbying takes
place.”