Johannesburg – Retail sales grew 3.8 percent in November, when measured
in constant 2012 prices.
In a statement issued on
Wednesday, Statistics SA said the highest annual growth rates were recorded for
retailers in hardware, paint and glass, pharmaceuticals and medical goods,
cosmetics and toiletries and general dealers.
It says the main contributor
to the 3.8 percent increase was general dealers.
Seasonally adjusted retail
trade sales increased by 3.5 percent month-on-month in November 2016. This followed
month-on-month changes of negative 0.6 percent in October 2016 and 0.8 percent
in September 2016.
StatsSA added, in the three
months to November, seasonally adjusted retail trade sales increased by 1.7 percent
compared with the previous three months.
Paul Sirani, Chief Market
Analyst at Xtrade, notes these figures could show signs of an economic
turnaround.
“2016 was a worrying year
for retailers in South
Africa, with new credit regulations
restricting the industry and consumers across the country strapped for cash.
“Yet, today’s numbers
showing an uptick in spending for November could be the green shoots of
recovery heading into 2017. Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan, who has had a
rollercoaster year, will be hoping that figures like this will help accelerate
growth at the World Bank’s new 1.1 percent-a-year forecast.
He adds: “December’s festive
trading figures are now eagerly anticipated, with any notable jump expected to
invite in investors.”
December is traditionally a
bumper month for retailers due to festive and back to school spending.
Read also: SA's September retail sales recover slightly
However, Jason Muscat, FNB
Senior Economic Analyst, says the uptick is likely to be short-lived.
He notes the gain, off the
back of a contradiction in October, may indicate that consumers delayed
purchases in the first month of the quarter in order to take advantage of Black
Friday deals in November. He says this is given credence by the 3.5 percent
month-on-month jump from October.
General dealers expanded
sales by 4.7 percent, hardware by 5.4 percent and pharma retailers by 4.9 percent.
Food and beverage sales growth, at 2.7 percent, moderated somewhat from
October, while clothing sales continue to disappoint in light of stricter
lending criteria and negative real credit extension growth, says Muscat. He
adds the misery continued for furniture retailers, with the sector contracting 0.8
percent year-on-year.
“We expect that the revival
in the month will be short-lived, and that year-on-year December sales will
disappoint given high levels of pre-December buying (Black Friday) and this
morning’s 6.8 percent year-on-year inflation print for the month.”
FNB adds there is unlikely
to be any interest rate relief for consumers given the sticky inflation
numbers. “The February budget speech will provide a clearer picture of what to
expect in terms of fiscal tightening and likely tax increases.”