Africa corn silos overflow as food crisis hits east

Published May 30, 2017

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Johannesburg - Africa’s corn harvest this

year is a tale of two extremes as worries about overflowing silos and rotting

crops in the south contrast with the east where supermarkets are running short

of the staple food.

Zambia

and South Africa are both

predicting record output of the grain, while Zimbabwe may meet its domestic

needs for the first time since it began seizing land from white farmers in

2000. Yet in East Africa, 17 million people

may be facing hunger, and concerns about food shortages are driving up prices

as governments scramble to secure imports.

“It all comes down to weather,” said Wessel Lemmer, a senior

agricultural economist at Barclays Africa Group Ltd.’s Absa unit in Johannesburg. “There’s

usually an inverse relationship between rainfall in south and East

Africa but this year has been more at the extreme end of that

cycle.”

Volatile weather conditions, prompted by the 2015-16 El Nino

weather pattern and exacerbated by climate change, have caused extremes of

drought and heavy rain across sub-Saharan Africa.

The resulting variations in crop yields are stretching the continent’s storage

capacity and transport links while highlighting cross-border trade barriers

that make it difficult for food to get where it’s most needed.

Read also:  Food crisis for southern Africa 

Local Politics

“Transport costs, import-export bans, restrictions on

genetically modified grain and local politics all hinder trade,” said Jacques

Pienaar, a Bloemfontein,

South Africa-based analyst at Commodity Insight Africa. “In Africa,

you can only move so much produce.

Corn, or maize as it’s called locally, is a central part of

life across much of sub-Saharan Africa,

usually ground and mixed with water to form a porridge or stiff dough.

In East Africa, countries including Kenya, Uganda,

Somalia and Ethiopia face a food-production deficit

equivalent to about 30 percent of consumption, according to the Nairobi-based Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa.

The effects of the drought have been amplified by conflict about 5.5 million

people are facing severe hunger in South Sudan while Somalia is on the brink of

famine with 3.2 million people at risk, according to the United Nations’ World

Food Program.

Kenya’s

reserves of corn dropped to less than a day’s worth of consumption earlier this

month, with annual food inflation reaching 21 percent in April, squeezing a

country where almost half of the population live on less than $2 a day. The

government is planning to import 450 000 tons of the grain to plug the deficit

and is subsidizing supplies.

Yet imports from South Africa,

the continent’s top producer, are unlikely because Kenya, like most African countries,

doesn’t allow genetically modified corn, according to Wandile Sihlobo, an

economist at the Pretoria-based Agricultural Business Chamber. About 85 percent

of South Africa’s

corn is GMO, he said.

 Record Crop

South

Africa said Friday it expects to reap an

unprecedented 15.63 million metric tons this year, after rains during the prime

growing period helped farmers rebound from the worst drought in more than a

century.

White corn for July delivery dropped to R1,652.60 a ton,

the lowest for a most-active contract in three years, in Johannesburg on Monday before rebounding to R1,729 a ton.

For Zambia, which this month lifted a corn-export ban after

forecasting a record 3.6 million-ton crop, the biggest question is where to put

it all. The country only has storage capacity of about 2.2 million tons,

according to the Grain Traders Association, and with neighbours Zimbabwe and

Malawi already well-supplied, landlocked Zambia’s export options are limited

and costly.

“South

Africa will easily outweigh us in terms of

transportation,” Chambuleni Simwinga, the association’s executive director,

said in an interview. All indications point to “a crisis in terms of wastage,”

he said. Zimbabwe

is also facing a severe lack of storage.

In addition to African neighbours, South Africa is eyeing nations including Japan, Taiwan

and South Korea

as buyers for its estimated 3.6 million-ton surplus this year, according to

producers’ group Grain SA. The government is also considering a strategic grain

reserve to supplement harvests during lean years, Agriculture Minister Senzeni

Zokwana said.

The country’s preference for white corn, which will account

for about 60 percent of South Africa’s output this year, will make it doubly

hard for the country to find international markets for all of its surplus,

Sihlobo said.

“Yellow maize will easily find market in the world, while

white-maize exports might find low or soft demand,” he said.

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