Nicola’s Notes: Mobile heydays are over

Nicola Mawson. Picture: Matthews Baloyi

Nicola Mawson. Picture: Matthews Baloyi

Published Mar 3, 2017

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If one thing is abundantly clear, it’s that the days when cellular companies effectively had a licence to print money are well and truly over.

In fact, they ended a few years ago - before the duopoly started taking umbrage at over-the-top players like WhatsApp and Facebook effectively making money off their networks.

That argument is currently ongoing, but at the nub of it was that people were using cellular networks - which cost billions and billions to put up - to access one-time password services, and all the mobile companies earned was data.

And therein lies the rub: data is at much lower margins than voice use, and - although its use is growing - the pace is not nearly enough to offset lost revenue from voice.

It is no wonder they are unhappy: their money-printing machine does not do just that any more.

Just take a look at how popular calls over WhatsApp are - and they can be cheaper, or even free, depending on your data package and whether you make or receive over wi-fi.

Ditto for Skype. And Facebook.

This shift in how we use phones is not, however, the only reason MTN has turned in its first loss since it was founded under the name M-Cell in South Africa in 1994.

MTN on Thursday reported a headline loss per share of 77c - a 110 percent decline.

Read also:  MTN delivers first ever loss

It was hit by the more than R10 billion fine by Nigerian authorities, costs relating to that, non-recurring losses from a stake it has sold, hyperinflation, and several other items.

MTN has a plan, it says, and will execute on its strategy.

It’s going to be tough going for Africa’s largest cellular company.

What is perhaps telling is that subscribers grew by 3.3 percent, while the company's revenue only grew by 0.4 percent.

Malaise

This is a malaise that cuts right through the entire industry.

Vodacom, for example, has been badly affected by the volatile rand. South Africa’s largest mobile operator grew revenue by a slim 1.2 percent to R21.2 billion in the three months to December.

Read also:  Strong rand weighs on Vodacom

Even if we take out the stronger rand, its top line only gained 3.9 percent, and that’s despite its South African subscriber base gaining 6.7 percent - although mitigated somewhat by its international operations declining 7.5 percent, caused by disconnections required because of new customer registration rules.

Dig deeper, and profit - not provided in the quarterly update - will likely have gained, but this will be because the company is clamping down on costs and being more efficient.

It has to grow its revenue stream if it wants to break this cycle - seen for the past few years now.

And there are not many places for a mobile company to grow when the higher-income earners in a country all have a multitude of SIMs already.

It’s pretty much a case of chasing those who spend less (lower margins) or grow your base by either offering cut-price deals, which again eats margins but is why costs are coming down, or buy another company.

Deal

And that, it seems, was Telkom’s plan with its unsolicited bid for Cell C.

Sadly for Telkom, Cell C had already agreed to sell a 45 percent stake to prepaid voucher provider Blue Label in a R5.5 billion deal, and is selling 15 percent to Net1- while it was embroiled in a controversy over welfare grants - for R2 billion.

Telkom’s mobile arm finally made a profit in the six months to September; behind its initial timeline, but welcomed nonetheless.

However, to really compete with the duopoly, Telkom needs a big push. Something that will give it gravitas, and more economies of scale.

Read also:  Telkom's mobile unit makes maiden profit

And, to get there, it needs to either buy something, or white label itself as a virtual mobile network operator and offer services similar to Mr Price, or FNB.

Telkom is not alone in this boat. MTN and Vodacom also have to reinvent themselves.

Maybe we will even see something totally out of the box?

Whatever happens, this space is going to become very interesting, and soon.

Nicola Mawson is the online editor of Business Report. Follow her on Twitter @NicolaMawson or Business Report @busrep.

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