Iran: SA will have to pick sides

January 27 2012 at 05:00am
By Donwald Pressly

REUTERS

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad walks in parliament in Tehran, November 1, 2011.

It probably doesn’t matter much that South Africa has, during its stints on the UN Security Council, backed all sorts of dodgy dictators such as the late Libyan ruler Muammar Gaddafi or Zimbabwe’s President Robert Mugabe.

South Africa may have looked spineless when it supported giving Gaddafi’s government a seat on the UN human rights council or saw nothing wrong with allowing Mugabe to attend a UN food security summit in Italy after turning his country’s key economic activity – agriculture – into a wasteland.

It did not mean that South Africa would be punished by the world community, or indeed, only by parts of it. But the decision by the EU to place an embargo on new oil contracts leaves South Africa with a conundrum. It is not so easy to defy the US – which has already placed an embargo on Iran – and Europe this time.

They represent together by far the biggest destinations for our products. The US is also threatening sanctions against financial institutions dealing with Iran’s central bank to purchase oil.

It looks set to become a big issue because Shell, BP, Sasol, Engen and Chevron import oil from Iran. On top of it the SA Petroleum Industry Association notes that Iran is our biggest supplier.

In addition Sasol and MTN have significant interests in Iran.

While Sasol is engaged in “preliminary talks for a possible divestiture” of its share in the Arya polymer plant, MTN does not look likely to review its 49 percent share in the Iranian telecommunications operator, Irancell.

Energy Department director-general Nelisiwe Magubane says it would cost about R300 million just to modify the refining facilities at South Africa’s private oil refineries if South Africa were to wean itself of the Iranian crude oil “diet”.

One suspects South Africa’s knee-jerk response would be to side with the Iranian government. Our propping up of Mugabe and prevarication over the no-fly zone in Libya are signals that our diplomatic heart lies with rulers who have backed our ruling party’s liberation struggle virtually at any cost to our so-called commitment to human rights.

It blinds us to any faults they may have as rulers. According to a Department of International Relations and Co-operation statement, the revolutionary Iranian government quickly severed diplomatic ties – which had been strong under the Shah – with South Africa.

The Islamic rulers backed the ANC’s “struggle” between 1979 and 1994 and reinstated diplomatic ties after 1994.

Any arguments that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad lost the 2009 election – much like Mugabe did in 2008 – will most likely fall on deaf ears.

During former president Nelson Mandela’s term South Africa offered Iran nuclear enrichment expertise, believing the Islamic country would not make nuclear weapons as the US believes.

South Africa still believes that Iran’s intentions are peaceful despite threats to bomb nuclear-armed Israel – a country which may deserve opprobrium for its policies towards Palestine but doesn’t deserve to be to the target of endless ANC venom.

The Iranian crisis has all the ingredients of sparking a world war. It certainly will mean that South Africa will be sucked into the international economic battles in the medium term.

South Africa may just have to work out who is the piper who plays – and indeed pays – the most powerful tune.