Rich Miller Washington
THE US has received its highest rating from international investors in more than two years on new optimism that the country will weather the financial crisis in Europe and avoid a recession next year, according to a Bloomberg poll.
Of those surveyed, 41 percent identify the US as among the markets that will perform best over the next year. That is up from less than one in three who felt that way in September and is the biggest percentage for the US since the survey began in October 2009.
It is almost double that of the next two top-rated markets, Brazil and China, in the quarterly global poll of 1 097 investors, analysts and traders who subscribe to Bloomberg, conducted this week.
The US “may not be in the best shape ever, but compared to others it should outperform”, said Alexis Laming, an associate director for Arab Bank in Geneva, Switzerland. It had “good growth potential for next year”.
Less than a quarter of investors say they expect the US to relapse into recession within the next year. In September, half those surveyed forecast a US economic contraction within that time frame.
US respondents are more optimistic about their local market than their overseas counterparts: more than half pick it as a best-performing market for 2012 while a third of non-US investors do the same.
Investors also give a vote of confidence in the US treasury market. Seven in 10 say treasuries will remain the safest investment for at least the next year, while 47 percent anticipate that the market will have that distinction for at least the next three years.
European investors are the most sceptical about US government bonds. Almost 40 percent say the securities are not the safest investment now.
The poll follows the release of a series of stronger-than- forecast economic statistics in the US. The unemployment rate fell last month to 8.6 percent, its lowest level since March 2009, while manufacturers reported their business expanded in November at its fastest pace in five months.
The prospects for the global economy are improving as well, though not as much as for the US. A third of investors say they expect the world economy to fall into recession within the next year, down 10 percentage points from September.
Stocks, especially in the US, are the asset class of choice. Almost two of five respondents identify equities as the investment that will offer the highest returns over the next year.
Asian investors are the most downbeat on Europe: more than three in five say its markets will perform the worst in 2012, while 43 percent of Europeans single out their region as a market to avoid. – Bloomberg