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Filomena Scalise
SA's foreign trade balance with its non-Southern African Customs Union (non-SACU) trading partners is expected to have clocked in a deficit of R3.5 billion in January from a R4.7 billion surplus in December, according to leading economists surveyed by I-Net Bridge.
Forecasts among six economists ranged from an R8.7 billion deficit to a R2.0 billion surplus.
Standard Bank research strategist Thabi Leoka said they forecast the trade balance to remain in surplus in January, but slow slightly.
The surplus, she said, was likely to be due to similar reasons as December's surplus, which was artificially depressed import volumes as a result of seasonal factors, rather than due to robust export growth.
“We judge that a combination of an expected recession in Europe, as well as the slowdown underway in China, which is currently SA's largest trading partner, will put pressure on the trade account,” said Leoka.
A trade surplus would bode well for the rand on two fronts
“Firstly it implies lower import volumes and relatively robust exports; secondly, a lower trade deficit contributes positively to a narrowing in the current account.”
SA's Customs and Excise Department is set to release the latest foreign trade data at 14:00 on Wednesday, February 29. - I-Net Bridge
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