New York - Global spending on prescription medicines
will reach nearly $1.5 trillion by 2021, although the annual
rate of growth will decrease from recent years, according to a
forecast by Quintiles IMS Holding released on Tuesday.
That figure, based on wholesale pricing, is up nearly $370
billion from estimated 2016 spending. The United States will
account for up to $675 billion of the $1.5 trillion.
When accounting for anticipated discounts and rebates to
health insurers and other payers, 2021 net spending will be
closer to $1 trillion, the QuintilesIMS Outlook for Global
Medicines through 2021 report found.
Annual spending growth over the next five years is forecast
at 4-7 percent, primarily driven by newer medicines for cancer,
diabetes and autoimmune diseases in developed markets. That
compares with spending growth of nearly 9 percent in 2014 and
2015 fueled in part by surging demand for new hepatitis C cures
that has since leveled off.
"After two years of unexpectedly high levels of growth, we
are returning to a more balanced and sustainable level of
expansion that we think health systems and payers will be able
to manage," Murray Aitken, executive director of the
QuintilesIMS Institute which compiled the data, said in an
interview.
QuintilesIMS regularly tracks prescription drug data for the
industry.
Spending in the United States, the largest market with by
far the highest drug prices, is expected to account for more
than half of global growth over the period, at a compound annual
rate of 6 to 9 percent, or 4 to 7 percent including discounts
and rebates. That is down from 12 percent spending growth in
2015.
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The report projects a slowdown in US branded drug price
increases, possibly a result of rising political pressure. It
sees annual wholesale price increases of 8 to 11 percent and net
prices rising 2 to 5 percent.
The report predicts an average of 45 new drug launches each
year, a historically high rate. While many will be very
expensive treatments, the report sees rising costs partially
offset by a higher level of drugs going off patent than in the
previous five years. That includes the anticipated effect of
more biosimilars - cheaper versions of high-priced biotech
medicines - entering the market.
"We are projecting they will have a total impact over the
next five years in the range of $27 billion to $58 billion in
savings in the U.S. market," Aitken said.
Economic slowdowns in Europe and emerging markets, such as
China, Brazil and Russia, will contribute to an overall drag on
spending growth and slow plans to expand access to more
medicines, the report said.
For example, China is expected to spend between $150 billion
and $180 billion in 2021, but annual spending growth for
medicines will fall to less than 7 percent over the next five
years from about 14 percent over the prior five.
The compound annual growth rate of drug spending in Europe
is estimated at just 1 to 4 percent through 2021.
"Economic growth remains relatively weak across Europe, so
that constrains expansion in healthcare and drug budgets,"
Aitken said.