The German state of Saarland votes on Sunday in the first of a trio of regional elections that could cripple Angela Merkel's junior coalition partners, weakening her centre-right government ahead of next year's federal election.
Popular for her steady handling of the euro zone debt crisis, the conservative chancellor plans to seek a third term in 2013, but will almost surely be forced to find a new partner, with the liberal Free Democrats (FDP) facing extinction from parliament at both the state and national level.
Her Christian Democrats (CDU) are running neck-and-neck with their main rivals, the Social Democrats (SPD), in Saarland and the most likely outcome is a “grand coalition” government of the two Volksparteien (People's Parties) - a result which could be a harbinger of the outcome in next year's federal election.
The snap vote in Saarland on the French border was triggered by parochial infighting in the FDP which brought down the fragile alliance of CDU, Greens and FDP that had ruled for the past two years.
The campaign in Saarland, which only officially became part of West Germany in 1957 after a debate on whether it should join France, has focused on local issues like the renewal of state infrastructure and overspending on a new gallery in the regional capital Saarbruecken.
But the contest in one of Germany's smallest states, with a population of one million, could set the tone for two strategically crucial regional votes in May - in Schleswig-Holstein and North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW), Germany's most populous state.
Together, the three votes are expected to set the tone for the national vote next year, offering clues about Merkel's re-election chances and the kind of coalition that will rule in Berlin from 2013.
“A crushing defeat for the FDP will have a psychological impact,” said Klaus-Peter Schoeppner of pollster TNS-Emnid.
Schleswig-Holstein goes to the polls on May 6 and NRW on May 13. Politics professor Klaus Schubert at the University of Muenster called the NRW vote “a seismograph of national voter sentiment”.
With 18 million people, NRW is larger than many European countries and its elections have had a destabilising effect on national politics in recent years. The ousting of the CDU state premier in NRW in 2010 lost Merkel her majority in the upper house of parliament, making it difficult to pass legislation.
Five years earlier, a humiliating loss for the SPD in NRW, whose big cities and heavy industry had made it a centre-left stronghold for decades, prompted chancellor Gerhard Schroeder to call early national elections, which swept Merkel into power.
If the FDP is ejected from the local assemblies in Saarland, Schleswig-Holstein and NRW, party insiders say the party's young leader Philipp Roesler - also Merkel's economy minister - would be forced to resign. The FDP already failed to secure seats in five state assemblies last year.
TWO-HORSE RACE
The CDU and SPD both scored 34 percent in the latest survey of voter intentions in Saarland, a state that has seen its traditional heavy industry and mining replaced by automobile plants and light manufacturing.
It is the home of far-left leader and former German finance minister Oskar Lafontaine, whose Left party could score 15 percent.
CDU state premier Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer says that only a grand coalition led by the conservatives can provide the stability needed for budget reforms in a state that has among the highest per capita public debt levels in Germany.
She points to the consensus with her SPD challenger Heiko Maas on almost all major policy issues - reflecting the general feeling in Germany that there is little to distinguish the two biggest parties.
Merkel aides say her consensus-seeking style of leadership made her more comfortable sharing power with the SPD during her first term, from 2005-2009, than in her current centre-right coalition, where she must work with the imploding FDP.
The pro-business FDP had appeared to be ideal partners, but they have proven erratic and collapsed in the polls. Last month they incensed Merkel by backing the centre-left's choice for German president, Joachim Gauck.
“She has had both a marriage of convenience and a marriage of love - and managed significantly better with the marriage of convenience,” said Schubert at Muenster University.
Beyond the tribulations of the coming votes, Merkel should remain in control until the 2013 elections despite calls by the SPD for early national elections if she loses in NRW.
“In difficult times, Germans want a strong political leader and it is hard to see any alternatives to Merkel,” said Emnid pollster Schoeppner. - Reuters