Platinum and palladium prices might advance because new mines might be delayed after Zimbabwe’s government ordered Anglo Platinum and other mining companies based outside the country to cede majority stakes to Zimbabweans, TD Securities said on Friday.

Palladium’s shortage might widen while platinum might move into deficit earlier than forecast in 2013 if there was a reduction in new capacity in Zimbabwe, TD Securities said in a report.

Zimbabwe is the third-biggest platinum producer after South Africa and Russia and the fifth-biggest in palladium, according to UK-based research company GFMS.

“Resource nationalism has become an increasingly important issue in recent years,” Bart Melek, an analyst at TD Securities in Toronto, said.

“Such policies tend to serve as hurdles that discourage investment in developing new capacity.”

Zimbabwe said in a March 25 decree that overseas mining companies had to explain within 45 days how they would cede 51 percent of their local assets to “indigenous” Zimbabweans. The move comes at a time when Australia, Canada, Chile, Venezuela, Peru and the Democratic Republic of Congo had considered raising taxes or taking stakes in mining companies to boost budget revenues, TD Securities said.

The investment climate in South Africa, which accounts for about 74 percent of the global mined platinum supply, might worsen after Zimbabwe’s move because it might embolden ANC youth leader Julius Malema to again make calls for the nationalisation of its mines, Melek said. Most of the 215 000-ounce global platinum output growth by 2013 would be in South Africa, which would also account for about two-thirds of the palladium production rise.

“Less production growth due to uncertainty in South Africa’s business climate would no doubt send this market into a chronic deficit and prices surging in fairly quick order,” Melek wrote.

Palladium for immediate delivery rose 1.6 percent to $786 (R5 226) an ounce and platinum climbed 1.1 percent to $1 783.45 an ounce by 12.12pm in London yesterday. Palladium is down 2 percent this year and platinum has gained 0.8 percent.

Zimbabwe was forecast to produce 300 000 ounces of platinum and 240 000 ounces of palladium in 2011, or about 5 percent and 4 percent of global output, Melek said. The country’s platinum supplies might grow by 65 000 ounces by 2013, while palladium output might rise by 35 000 ounces.

Zimbabwe’s government would make sure foreign companies were “junior partners” in the country, President Robert Mugabe said on March 28. Companies had six months to sell the stakes, the government said. – Bloomberg