Beijing - When Donald Trump becomes US president next month, one issue above all others could force his
new administration to work closely with China and underscore why
he and Beijing need each other - North Korea.
A nuclear armed North Korea, developing missiles that could
hit the US west coast, is clearly bad news for Washington but
also Pyongyang's sometimes-reluctant ally Beijing, which fears
one day those missiles could be aimed at them.
"There is enormous space for the two countries to cooperate
on North Korea. The two must cooperate here. If they don't, then
there will be no resolution to the North Korean nuclear issue,"
said Ruan Zongze, a former Chinese diplomat now with the China
Institute of International Studies, a think-tank affiliated with
the Foreign Ministry.
"It's no good the United States saying China has to do more.
Both have common interests they need to pursue, and both can do
more," he added.
North Korea is a tricky proposition even at the best of
times for China, and simply easing up on UN sanctions as a way
to express displeasure at Trump's foreign policies could
backfire badly for China, said one China-based Asian diplomat.
"They can't really do that without causing themselves
problems," the diplomat added, pointing to China's desire to
denuclearise the Korean peninsula.
Taiwan tension
From North Korea to Iran to a closely entwined business
relationship worth $598 billion in 2015, the two countries have
broad common interests, and China expects Trump to understand
that.
While China was angered by Trump's call this month with
Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen, and then casting doubt over the
future of the "one China" policy under which the US recognises
Taiwan as being part of China, it was also quite restrained,
said a senior Beijing-based Western diplomat
"China's game now is to influence him and not antagonise
him," he said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
China believes the two countries need each other, and as
Trump is a businessman he understands that, the People's Daily's
wrote last month.
"The importance of the China-US relationship goes without
saying, and can be said to be too big to fail," the communist
party mouthpiece wrote in a commentary.
Read also: China warns Trump against ignoring its Taiwan interests
China also expects a transactional relationship with the
deal-making Trump, especially on trade, even if for Beijing
Taiwan is completely off limits for negotiation.
"Trump is a businessman. He wants a deal," a source with
ties to the Chinese leadership told Reuters, requesting
anonymity. "He wants the biggest benefit at the smallest cost."
On the campaign trail, Trump threatened punitive tariffs on
China, and has recently repeated his criticism of Chinese trade
policy, dovetailing with his Taiwan comments.
"This is provocation, but war is unlikely," a second Chinese
source with leadership ties said of Trump's Taiwan moves.
"The Chinese side will not easily yield," the source said.
"We expect tensions."
Trade interests
Wang Huiyao, head of the Centre for China and Globalisation
and a government adviser, said China should invite the United
States to join the Beijing-lead Asian Infrastructure Investment
Bank.
"He will pursue US interests and to do so he cannot ignore
the huge benefits that come from China-U.S. trade relations,"
Wang said.
The Asian diplomat said some Chinese officials had expressed
"euphoria" at Trump's election, believing it marked the end of
U.S. dominance in the world and represented China's chance to
seized the initiative.
But Trump's unexpected move to put the Taiwan issue centre
stage in relations with China had put an end to that.
"They're not as happy now," he said.
To be sure, there are voices in China seeing opportunity in
a Trump presidency.
Huo Jianguo, former head a trade policy body under China's
Commerce Ministry, said Trump is likely to reduce the United
States' engagement with the world, presenting an opening for
China.
"Under Obama, China-U.S. relations had already deteriorated
to their worst possible level. Trump will not continue to
ratchet up what were clearly ideological attempts to suppress
China," Huo said.
"China should not seek to immediately take the lead in
global governance. They should first lead RCEP to become
successful, then from here China's global influence can take
root," Huo said, referring to a Southeast Asian-backed free
trade deal China has championed.
Even the Global Times, an influential and normally
stridently nationalistic tabloid, has sought to temper
expectations on how China could use a Trump presidency to its
advantage.
"China still cannot match the US in terms of comprehensive
strength," it said in an editorial. "It has no ability to lead
the world in an overall way, plus, neither the world nor China
is psychologically ready for it. It's beyond imagination to
think that China could replace the U.S. to lead the world."