Soy slips due to economic worries

Published Sep 20, 2012

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US soybeans eased on Thursday as economic worries dampened other markets and a combination of harvest progress and softening export demand took attention away from a severe US drought that drove prices to record highs this month.

The fall halted a 2 percent rebound seen on Wednesday, when soybeans drew some bargain-buying after enduring their steepest two-day slide in seven weeks in a burst of liquidation by funds.

Corn, which like soy is facing pressure from an advancing US harvest, also slipped, pulling wheat in its wake.

A rapid start to soybean harvesting and reports of better-than-expected yields helped to prompt a correction in Chicago earlier this week, even though analysts believe US and global supply will remain extremely tight after the worst US drought in 56 years slashed yield potential.

Slowing imports in China and expectations of continued selling of soybeans from its state reserves have also encouraged the pullback.

“I think there is a bit of pressure on prices because of the harvest,” said Serene Lim, a commodities analyst at Standard Chartered Bank in Singapore.

“But we are still bullish on US crops and we are recommending to our clients to buy on any dips.”

Weak Chinese and euro zone data pushed oil and equity markets lower and helped strengthen the dollar, putting extra pressure on commodities traded in the US currency.

USDA TO CHANGE TIME OF KEY REPORTS

Chicago Board of Trade November soy was down 0.6 percent at $16.60 a bushel by 13:37 SA time, leaving the contract about 4.5 percent lower so far this week.

Talk of better-than-anticipated US yields has reinforced sentiment that late summer rains arrived in time to benefit later-planted crops.

The consensus of 14 analysts polled by Reuters put this year's US soybean yield at 35.85 bushels per acre, up from the US Department of Agriculture's Sept. 12 forecast of 35.3 bushels.

China, which buys about 60 percent of globally traded soybeans, will carry on selling soybean reserves well into 2013 to contain food inflation and tight global supply, traders said.

China imported 4.42 million tonnes of soybeans in August, the lowest monthly level in 6 months, as record-high prices and reduced world supply cut demand.

CBOT December corn lost 0.4 percent to $7.53-1/2 a bushel.

On wheat markets, CBOT December wheat fell 0.3 percent to $8.79-1/4, while November milling wheat in Paris was up 0.1 percent at 261.25 euros a tonne as the market continued to hold a support zone around 260 euros.

Wheat operators are scrutinising export demand at a time of depleting stocks in Russia, the world's fourth largest exporter, after its drought-hit harvest.

“Given the bearish move observed since the beginning of the week, some cereal importing countries are organising new tenders,” French consultancy Agritel said, citing a Tunisian tender on Thursday to buy feed barley.

Iraq's state grains board purchased 150,000 tonnes of Russian-origin wheat in an international tender on Wednesday, although operators are convinced Russia will soon fade from exports markets.

The market noted news that the US government will begin from January to issue major agricultural reports at midday, when Chicago trading is in full swing, abandoning the early morning release of the world's most important crop data after almost two decades.

After months of debate following the adoption of nearly 24-hour futures trading, the USDA said on Wednesday that from January it would release US crop forecasts and five other major reports at noon Eastern Time (11 a.m. Central).

Some operators had sought the change to avoid having market-moving reports issued at times of low liquidity that can distort price movements.

But the move could cause headaches for participants in European grain futures markets, who will see the USDA report just 30 minutes before the close of trading, rather than in their early afternoon as is now the case. - Reuters

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