Dollar on the back foot

File photo: Siphiwe Sibeko.

File photo: Siphiwe Sibeko.

Published Aug 15, 2016

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Tokyo - The dollar was on the defensive on Monday, pressured by downbeat US data that tempered expectations of a near-term interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve.

The greenback was little changed at 101.340 yen after losing 0.6 percent on Friday, when the US indicators were released. The euro was steady at $1.1156 after edging up 0.2 percent on Friday.

The dollar index was effectively unchanged at 95.767 after going to as low as 95.254 on Friday, its lowest since August 3.

The dollar came under pressure after Treasury yields slid sharply in response to weaker-than-expected US retail sales and producer prices data on Friday. The 10-year US Treasury note yield fell roughly 5 basis points on Friday to a 2-week low.

“It is difficult for the dollar to rise when long-term US Treasury yields head in the opposite direction, and yields look to remain capped for a while,” said Koji Fukaya, president of FPG Securities in Tokyo.

“The drop in yields looks overdone, but Treasuries have been showing less of a response to strong data while reacting more to weak ones. This is perhaps understandable when debt market expectations are that a rate hike would not result in a series of tightening steps.”

Already slim expectations for a US interest rate increase in September were trimmed even further after the data, while prospects for a rate hike in December also took a knock.

Federal funds futures implied traders saw a 43 percent chance the US central bank would increase interest rates at its December policy meeting, down from 47 percent shortly before Friday's data.

“The dollar's push lower that we anticipate until later in the month gained momentum following the disappointing US retail sales report before the weekend,” wrote Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman.

“The dollar's technical tone has deteriorated, while economic data is unlikely to be sufficient to reverse sentiment.”

US economic data due this week include Tuesday's housing starts, consumer price index and industrial output and the Philadelphia Fed's business sentiment index on Thursday.

Asian currency markets showed little reaction to Monday's data which showed Japan's economic growth stalled in the second quarter.

The world's third-largest economy expanded by an annualised 0.2 percent in the second quarter, less than a median market forecast for a 0.7 percent increase, Cabinet Office data showed on Monday.

The lacklustre data was taken in stride with the market more focused on the Bank of Japan's comprehensive policy review in September and whether it will suggest any chance in strategy.

Sterling edged up 0.1 percent to $1.2931.

The focus was on whether this week's UK economic data would either push the pound to or away from the 31-year low of $1.2798 touched after the June Brexit referendum.

Signs of economic weakness after the Brexit vote are expected to provide incentive for the Bank of England to easy monetary policy further, which in turn could weaken the pound.

British indicators due this week include Tuesday's consumer and producer prices, Wednesday's employment and Thursday's retail sales.

The Australian dollar was flat at $0.7646. The Aussie had risen to a 3-month high of $0.7760 last week, thanks in part to the country's relatively higher yields, but it was nudged off the peak in response to weaker than expected Chinese indicators.

REUTERS

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