Rand steady, euro stuck in ranges

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Graphic: renjith krishnan

The rand was steady against the dollar in noon trade on Wednesday as it tracked a euro that was stuck in ranges as investors mulled the implications of the second Greek bailout.

“There's also the Budget Speech to consider later on today, although I don't think we'll see anything major with regards to the rand,” a local currency trader said.

“However, players are reluctant to position heavily either way until they see what the Budget contains,” the trader added.

While Consumer Price Index (CPI) data had shown that inflation had moved higher and this was rand negative, the figures had not impacted the local currency, he added.

“Dollar rand is stuck in a 7.64 to 7.75 range at present and looking ahead I see a weaker rand.”

At 11:33 local time, the rand was bid at R7.7260 to the dollar from its previous close of R7.7313. It was bid at R10.2182 to the euro from R10.2386 before, and at R12.1567 against sterling from R12.1995 previously.

The euro was bid at US$1.3221 from its previous close of US$1.3249.

Earlier Statistics SA said the increase in SA's CPI was 6.3% year on year (y/y) in January from 6.1% y/y in December.

The inflation rate was expected to have ticked up slightly to 6.2% y/y in January, according to a survey of leading economists by I-Net Bridge. Forecasts among the economists ranged from 6.1% to 6.3%.

At 14:00 local time, SA Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan will deliver his Budget Vote Speech.

Meanwhile Dow Jones Newswires reported that in European markets, the euro traded in tight ranges against the dollar as doubts remained on Greece's ability to put its debt load on a sustainable footing.

Although Greece had, in principle, secured a second bailout deal, there were still many questions to be asked about implementation and how effective the deal would be.

The next step was to see how willingly private sector creditors would participate in the deal. The Institute of International Finance had negotiated a deal on behalf of private holders of Greek debt that would see a 53.5% reduction in the nominal value of their holdings.

There are, however, still concerns about contagion risks.

Dominic Rossi, global chief investment officer of equities at Fidelity Worldwide Investment said: “A Greek default has been priced into equity markets but what is far less clear is the implications for other nations, particularly Portugal, Spain and Italy. Whilst we appreciate progress has been made, particularly in Italy ... this remains a multi-year workout during which they will remain vulnerable to external shocks such as a Greek default.”

In fact, Portugal's 10-year government bond yield did not paint a pretty picture as in European trade mid-morning, its yield was up 3.90 basis points at 12.031%.

And purchasing managers' figures for the eurozone's largest economies were also a little disappointing.

French business activity grew at a reduced pace in February. The composite purchasing managers' index for France fell to 50.6 in February from a five-month-high of 51.2 in January. A reading above 50 signals growth. - I-Net Bridge

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