US dollar at 5-year high ahead of data

Graphic: renjith krishnan

Graphic: renjith krishnan

Published Nov 7, 2014

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Wellington - The US dollar traded at a 5 1/2-year high versus major peers, and Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures rose before US payrolls data.

Most European stocks advanced as oil headed for its seventh straight weekly drop and the ruble plunged to a record.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index traded at 1 097.52 by 8:22 am in London, near its highest close since April 2009.

The greenback bought more than 48 rubles for the first time.

More than two stocks rose for each that fell on the Stoxx Europe 600 Index, while Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures rose 0.1 percent after the gauge climbed to a record.

Brent crude fell 0.7 percent in London.

Gold and silver touched four-year lows.

The October payrolls report comes amid signs of strength in the US economy, with data yesterday showing fewer Americans than analysts projected filed for unemployment benefits.

While the Federal Reserve pares stimulus, central banks in Europe, Japan and China are signaling additional easing.

German exports rose more than estimated in September, data today showed, before Chinese trade reports tomorrow.

“Should we see a positive payrolls report in line with our forecast, the dollar should rise,” Takeru Kurokawa, an analyst in Tokyo at Ueda Harlow, which provides margin-trading services, said by e-mail.

“Euro selling on the back of expectations that additional easing by the ECB will be rolled out smoothly as well as the BOJ action last week should push dollar-yen higher.”

Nonfarm payrolls in the US probably rose by 235 000 workers in October, according to the median of 100 economists’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

That would see the data maintain gains of more than 200 000, after payrolls climbed by 248 000 in September.

The jobless rate probably held at a six-year low of 5.9 percent in October, the survey showed.

 

Greenback Advance

 

The number of people filing jobless claims for the first time in the US dropped to 278 000 in the week to November 1, below the 285 000 median forecast of 50 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, a report yesterday showed.

The four-week moving average, a less-volatile measure of job cuts, reached the lowest level in more than 14 years.

The Bloomberg dollar gauge, which tracks the greenback against 10 major peers, climbed 0.6 percent yesterday and is headed for a 1.6 percent gain in the week, the most since the five days ended June 21 last year.

The yen was little changed at 115.20 per dollar.

The currency is headed for a weekly decline of 2.6 percent, the most among 11 Asian currencies tracked by Bloomberg.

 

Ruble Rout

 

Russia’s ruble slid 3.1 percent to 47.6010 per dollar, after sliding to as weak as 48.3690.

Under new rules announced yesterday, the Bank of Russia can conduct large-scale discretionary interventions to defend against what it deems to be threats to the nation’s financial stability.

Such operations will be restricted only by the size of the reserves, central bank First Deputy Governor Ksenia Yudaeva said yesterday.

Russia had reserves of $428.6 billion at October 31, according to the central bank.

The won lost 0.9 percent to 1 093.43 per dollar, heading for a seventh straight decline, the longest such streak since March last year.

The dollar has gained 2.3 percent versus the currency this week, the most since June 2013, on concern weakness in the yen will make Korean exports less competitive.

Goldman Sachs revised down forecasts for the won in a note yesterday, citing falling export profits and slowing global growth.

The Kospi index was little changed in Seoul.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index swung to a 0.5 percent loss.

The measure is down 1.9 percent this week.

The Shanghai Composite Index slid 0.3 percent, erasing the week’s gain.

 

HKEx Jumps

 

Preparations for mutual market access between China’s two main equity markets are at the final stage, the China Securities Regulatory Commission said on its official microblog yesterday.

Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing, the city’s bourse operator, jumped 2 percent and is up 36 percent this year.

China’s bonds rallied after the central bank confirmed it added cash to the banking system in the last two months and signaled further monetary stimulus.

The yield on government debt due September 2024 declined five basis points to 3.6 percent, headed for the lowest close for a benchmark 10-year note since July 2013.

 

Further Loosening?

 

“The report highlighted the risks to the economy, and an ‘appropriate’ monetary policy environment means there will be more loosening,” Guotai Junan Securities Co. analysts led by Xu Hanfei, wrote in a report today.

“This expectation is likely to drive the bond market up further.”

China may report a slowdown in export growth tomorrow, with economists projecting a 10.7 percent increase from a year earlier in offshore shipments for October, down from 15.3 percent in September.

Imports probably rose 5 percent after gaining 7 percent in the previous month.

The euro climbed 0.2 percent to $1.2394 after sliding 0.9 percent yesterday to its weakest level since August 21, 2012.

The 18-nation currency is down 1.1 percent this week.

ECB officials were unanimous in their commitment to use “additional unconventional instruments within its mandate” to support growth, President Mario Draghi told reporters yesterday.

Last week, the Bank of Japan increased stimulus.

Australian government bonds followed Treasuries lower, with yields on 10-year debt advancing 11 basis points, or 0.11 percentage point, to 3.35 percent.

Rates on Treasury notes due in a decade were little changed at 2.38 percent after rising four basis points yesterday.

The S&P 500 increased 0.4 percent in New York to a record 2 031.21.

 

Oil Slides

 

West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.2 percent to $77.73 a barrel after losing 1 percent yesterday.

WTI is headed for a weekly retreat of 3.7 percent after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries lowered every published forecast for crude demand through 2035, except for next year.

Brent crude fell to $82.29 per barrel, heading for the lowest close since 2010 and bringing its seventh weekly drop to 4.2 percent.

Libya said yesterday that it will resume pumping at its biggest field soon.

Silver fell as much as 2.3 percent to $15.0681 an ounce, and is down this week by 4.7 percent, a fourth straight loss.

Gold was down as much as 0.9 percent at $1 132.16 per ounce, the lowest intraday level since April 2010, before swinging between gains and losses.

The yellow metal has retreated 2.5 percent this week. - Bloomberg News

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