The discrepancy in the unemployment figures contained in the census report and the quarterly labour force survey, compiled by the same agency, were mainly attributed to the lack of experience of population census workers, statistician-general Pali Lehohla said yesterday.
The census found unemployment was 29.8 percent, while the third quarter 2011 labour force survey put it at 23.9 percent. The discrepancy suggested that the 25.5 percent unemployment rate derived from the third quarter 2012 labour force survey was similarly underestimated. In other words, the official unemployment rate was over 30 percent.
Lehohla said that Statistics SA would stay with the findings of the quarterly labour force survey.
Annabel Bishop, an economist at Investec Group, said the unemployment figures did not tally with the census numbers released on Tuesday, which show an unemployment figure of 29.8 percent in 2011 but were calculated by the same agency, Stats SA.
Analysts were in agreement that the unemployment rate was too high and that the government’s target for job creation was out of reach.
Nedbank said: “The local economic outlook remains bleak, with exports hurt by weaker global demand and domestic spending likely to moderate on weaker consumer confidence. This doesn’t bode well for employment creation by the private sector.
“However, employment by the public sector could improve somewhat as the government accelerates its infrastructure programme.”
It said the rise in the unemployment rate was worrying but the numbers were not likely to influence the Reserve Bank’s short-term stance.
“This lessens the chances of another interest rate cut in the short term. We expect the monetary policy committee to maintain an accommodative stance, keeping interest rates stable, with some reversal in policy likely in late 2013 or early 2014,” Nedbank said.
Bishop said: “[The] authorities need to focus… on reducing both the prevailing policy uncertainty and rapid escalation in business costs [above inflation increases in electricity and water tariffs and property rates and taxes] that are hampering corporate sector investment and job creation.”
Enabling the business environment would enable job creation, which had the potential to become a virtuous cycle, lifting gross domestic product and living standards, if effectively and consistently implemented over the next 10 years.
Cosatu said it was urgent to start rolling out the government’s job creation programmes, if the country was to to come anywhere near the target of creating 5 million jobs by 2020.