Johannesburg - The fall in the matric pass rate may be a cause for concern for the economy in the long-term as there is a strong link between education and economic performance.
If the dwindling trend of the pass rate and drop-out rate continues, experts said the implication would be insufficient human capital in the workforce, which would directly have a negative effect on economic growth. Basic Education Minister Angie Motshekga announced on Tuesday the pass rate had dropped by a further 5 percentage points to 70.7 percent from 2014’s pass rate of 75.8 percent.
However, the silver lining contained in the 2015 results was that 455 825 pupils passed – the highest number since the advent of democracy in SA.
Azar Jammine, chief economist at Econometrix, said merely passing matric did not put a person in a great position to get a decent job or to thrive in the workplace and in the economy – excellence and skillfulness was part and parcel of success.
“What is holding back economic growth is that too few people are educated enough to execute certain jobs needed in the economy,” Jammine said.
David Mosaka, an economist at Conningarth Economists, said: “For the economy to grow, it needs sufficient skills.”
Failure to be admitted into tertiary education due to a poor educational outcome would likely compound socio-economic problems, resulting from an increase in the gap in human capital needed in vital industries and the subsequent rise in the unemployment rate, he said.
This would have an impact on social welfare, he added.
Education standard
It is the poor people and the government that will bear the hardest burden owing to poor education in the long term, said Mosaka.
“The government must then step in and place a burden on its fiscus in terms of supporting more people,” Mosaka added.
The standard of education is a key factor for advancing the South African economy, he noted.
The slow economy meant that many school leavers would find it difficult to find jobs, especially in the formal economy, Mosaka said.
However, Dennis George, the general secretary of the Federation of Unions of South Africa (Fedusa), said: “Fedusa maintains that access to and the completion of a full cycle of quality basic education up to matric is significant to support inclusive economic growth and the reduction of youth unemployment and income inequality.”
PAC spokesman Kenneth Mokgatlhe said many matriculants faced the dilemma of financial incapacity with regards to high registration and tuition fees and that this prevented their admission into higher education institutions which, resultantly, lowered their prospects of employment.
The three top provinces were the Western Cape, Gauteng and Free State, which scored a pass rate of 84.7 percent, 84.2 percent and 81.6 percent respectively. However, Eastern Cape produced the poorest results with a pass rate of 56 percent.
The number of learners who passed maths increased from 120 523 in 2014 to 129 481 in 2015, which is a 7.4 percent rise; while learners that passed physical science grew from 103 348 in 2014 to 113 121 last year, a jump of 9.5 percent.
In 2015, the World Economic Forum published The Global Competitiveness Report, which ranked South Africa’s quality of maths and science education last in a group of 148 countries.
The DA yesterday wrote a letter to Motshekga requesting that she establish an independent inquiry into the matric results, given the drop in performance in Eastern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal and Limpopo, whose performance dragged down the national pass rate.
“We pay too much attention to pass rates. Fluctuations in the pass rate is not necessarily a negative thing,” said Sarah Gravett, the dean of the faculty of education at the University of Johannesburg.
According to Gravett, to ensure quality results, there should be greater emphasis and investment in education beginning at the lowest junior level. Matric started in the first grade.
Passing matric alone was not enough to get admitted into university as universities have additional higher requirements, Gravett said.
Nedbank Group chief economist Dennis Dykes said there would be no immediate impact on the economy resulting from the drop in the pass rate.
However, Dykes said that it was important that education equipped young people to get further education post high school.
“Obviously, over time you’d like to see education improve in order to increase the capacity to become a productive economy,” he said.
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