Nicola’s Notes: When it rains

Nicola Mawson, IOL Business Editor. Picture: Matthews Baloyi

Nicola Mawson, IOL Business Editor. Picture: Matthews Baloyi

Published Mar 4, 2016

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As I was driving into the office this morning - is it me or is traffic getting exponentially worse? - I caught the tail end of John Robbie interviewing a chap who claims he can make it rain.

My initial reaction, like those of many others I’m sure, was pull the other one.

Come on! Haven’t we heard this sort of claim before?

On top of which, if this chap really could make it rain, why on earth would he wait until vast swathes of the continent are suffering from the effects of the worst drought in more than a century? In fact, it’s the worst drought since South Africans started keeping track of the daily rainfall measurements.

The drought has had devastating effects on farmers and their workers, with animals being slaughtered early and maize farmers declaring bankruptcy, costing thousands of jobs and taking food off the plates of thousands of South Africans.

Food prices are up. A lot. Meat is substantially more expensive, as is maize meal, potatoes, veg - pretty much name it and your shopping cost you more this month.

Just yesterday, President Jacob Zuma conceded the drought was an impediment to economic growth.

It’s not, said Zuma, a national disaster.

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I beg to differ.

Five provinces - KwaZulu-Natal, North West, Free State, Limpopo and Mpumalanga - have been declared provincial disaster areas.

We only have nine provinces, so that’s more than half.

In addition, as Moody’s has already pointed out, captain, this drought could well push SA into a recession.

The drought is going to see inflation move up. Higher inflation means the South African Reserve Bank will have to act. Again. And this time it may well go beyond the 0.5 percent hike it gifted us with last time.

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That means people who thought they could afford that larny car and that plush house in a posh suburb will find that they cannot.

And they can’t improve their job prospects because, well, there aren’t any.

If anything, this drought is like a massive straw on an already-teetering camel’s back.

It’s bad news all around. It’s especially bad news for those who will suffer the most when food becomes unaffordable.

So, what’s to be done?

I have no idea. Even if we had decent rain now, it wouldn’t help much because the planting season is over. Assuming good summer rains, we’re still stuck with the pain for at least a year.

The sad part is that government has failed to plan, because weather pundits warned this would come.

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While I’m not suggesting that Zuma should have got hold of the gent who called 702 this morning, I am suggesting that something could have been done. Like stockpiling staples.

Or setting up an emergency fund for those who can’t afford food.

Or even having a water redistribution plan.

Oh yes, we have one of those; it’s called Operation Hydrate. The private sector did that all by itself.

Wouldn’t it have been great if government could have stepped in a year ago and pulled private sector, labour and South Africans together and said: “This is our plan, please help?”

Government is now looking to work more closely with the private sector so we can find a way out of our economic malaise. Let’s hope this doesn’t become talks about talks. We need to be like the Nike slogan and just do it.

Oh, and if it rains tomorrow, I’ll print this column and eat it. Pictures, or it doesn’t count.

Nicola Mawson is the online editor of Business Report. Follow her on Twitter @NicolaMawson or Business Report @busrep.

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