London - It's time, once again, for some hot air on a cold mountain.
The World Economic Forum kicks off in the exclusive Swiss resort of Davos tomorrow. It will be the 46th such gathering and the usual constellation of top politicians, multinational chief executives, senior bankers and third-sector lobbyists will assemble to pontificate, network, scheme, plead and even do the occasional business deal, in conference rooms and corridors set aside to host the world's global elite.
The official theme of this year's Davos is “The Fourth Industrial Revolution”, a reference to the social opportunities and dangers presented by advancements in robotics and biotech over the coming decades. The WEF's founder Klaus Schwab has, rather handily, written an entire book on the subject. Some of the discussion panels have titles such as “What if robots go to war?”, “What if you're still alive in 2100?” and “What if your brain confesses?”
Stimulating as such sessions promise to be, many participants are likely to have more immediate problems on their minds.
Oil fuels uncertainty
The economic backdrop to this year's WEF is, once again, one of wild uncertainty, particularly over oil. The global oil price is now below $30 a barrel - a stunning 75 per cent collapse since the summer of 2014. One question likely to be put again and again to all economists and chief executives chosen sit on public panels is just how low will the price of the black fuel fall?
The views of delegates from Opec - who actually have some potential influence over the price of fuel - will be especially sought after. Prince Turki Al-Faisal, an adviser to the Saudi oil ministry who is attending, is likely to be a popular fellow among the VIP-only lounges of the conference centre. And not only for his views on the likelihood of Saudi Arabia curtailing supply to support the oil price but for any titbits of information about a float for Saudi Aramco, which could, in theory, create the world's most valuable company.
The investment banking bosses in attendance - including Tidjane Thiam of Credit Suisse, John Cryan of Deutsche Bank, Jes Staley of Barclays, Bill Winters of Standard Chartered, Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan and Stuart Gulliver of HSBC - will be licking their chops at the thought of the fees to be earned from such an IPO. Davos is an ideal opportunity to make, discreetly, their own bank's pitch. Other delegates with potentially market-moving views on the oil price include BP's chief executive Robert Dudley and Fatih Birol of the International Energy Agency.
The oil price has colossal implications for developing economies around the world, from Russia to Brazil. The Brics crowd will be in attendance, but their lustre has well and truly worn off now. The other great imponderable - both for political leaders and business bosses - will be the growth rate of the global economy, which probably posted its most lacklustre expansion in 2015 since the global financial crisis.
China's woes
Will 2016 be better? Much rests on China. The GDP figures of the world's second largest economy for the final quarter of 2015, released today, will be fresh in the minds of most delegates. But don't expect the trappist Chinese government delegates to drop any major announcements about a shift in economic policy; that always comes out of Beijing. Nevertheless some of the speculation of representatives of the Chinese private sector such as Alibaba's gregarious Jack Ma might be diverting.
Dramatic downward lurches in the Chinese stock market have set the tone for global financial exchanges since the new year. Larry Fink of BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager who will be in attendance at Davos, has already said that he expects markets to fall by another 10 per cent and has raised the spectre of a bear market. Will any other money runners - such as Martin Gilbert of Aberdeen Asset Management or Katherine Garrett-Cox of Alliance Trust Investments, perhaps - offer a more upbeat view?
Greece and the eurozone
One welcome relief will be a rare absence of the eurozone from the agenda of woe, after the defusing of the Greek explosive last year. Its Prime Minister, Alexis Tsipras, will do the rounds, completing his extraordinary transformation from left-wing firebrand to Davos man. Mario Draghi of the European Central Bank must be relishing a year in which he will not be asked about the imminent demise of the single currency, although his words will be carefully scrutinised for signals about more monetary easing from the ECB.
Refugee crisis
The Continent's migrant crisis will be an important talking point. Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel will not be there to defend her deeply controversial policy of welcoming refugees while other European nations have sought to divert them. It will be left to her finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, to field those queries. Although this being Davos, where global migration is worshipped as an inherent good, he need not fear being heckled.
Brexit on the cards?
David Cameron and George Osborne, both attending as usual, will doubtless be pressed on the success (or otherwise) of their negotiations over the UK's relationship with the rest of the European Union ahead of the referendum. The pair will also do their usual “invest in Britain” routine. But on that front they will be without the assistance of Prince Andrew, the UK's special representative for trade and Davos-regular (which is a little odd, because it was last year that the media storm over allegations of underage sex dogged him all the way to Switzerland).
Not to mention...
Silicon Valley will be well represented this year by the Uber founder Travis Kalanick, along with Eric Schmidt of Alphabet (the new Google parent company) and Sheryl Sandberg of Facebook.
Stardust will be provided by Bono, Kevin Spacey and Leonardo DiCaprio. The latter is being honoured for his environmental campaigning. But he might play a symbolic role, too. In his new film, The Revenant, DiCaprio gets mauled to within an inch of his life by an angry bear. The question is: will Davos man emerge any better off after this year's roll in the Swiss snow?
THE INDEPENDENT