While, in hindsight we can understand why Donald Trump won the US presidency, I admit that I - along with most of the world - did not think that it was possible.
That certainty was based on long-standing assumptions about the times we live in. However, 2016 has disrupted the very core of the status quo. Brexit, bombs, block chain and #Blacklivesmatter have created chaos. Canada opened, Europe closed; Brazil's Dilma Rousseff fell and Philippines' Rodrigo Duterte rose. Old structures are unravelling, but any insight on what is to come is scarce.
To withstand chaos, we need to be adaptable. To see opportunity, we need to be open. The pace of change is so rapid that we are losing our ability to keep up with it - only those who can let go of assumptions and change as fast as their environments do will succeed.
When analysing world events we do so within a structure that takes perceived certainties for granted and sees change to these as impossible or that it must happen slowly over a long period of time.
We assume that people will vote in their self-interest. We assume that their interest, according to our criteria, must be rational and logical. We assume that extraction is needed for industry, that oil will remain the primary source of energy and that electricity is something we buy rather than produce. We assume that sovereign borders have settled and that they define a country’s area of control over its people.
We assume that global white power will prevail until it declines slowly towards equality. We assume that food comes from rural farms, that money must be created by central banks and that economies must grow. We assume that in selecting market systems we are restricted to the major categories of capitalism, socialism, communism or feudalism.
These assumptions - among many others - cloud our understanding and our collective creativity. We live in a time when we need to question all of them.
Already too late
The most influential change over the next 20 years will occur in how we approach economic systems. Infinite growth upon finite resources can only end in crisis. Production, politics, places and populations will adapt to the necessity for a sustainable economy. We’re already too late to preserve biodiversity; change will be driven by the need to preserve resources.
Linked to resource scarcity is migration. The Syrian refugee crisis brought a long awaited spotlight to hoards of migrants moving throughout Africa, the Middle East and eastern Europe. Already countries and ideologies are crumbling under the pressure, but this is just a curtain raiser to what we will face if we do not pre-empt the impact of climate change. Sea-level rise is now a certainty. Drought will increase in southern Africa, while heavier rains will fall in the north. Entire cities will need to either adapt or move.
Shifts in resources will lead to shifts in power. The US’s grip over the global political economy is weakening. But if reliance on oil declines, so too does the power of Russia, Saudi Arabia, China and Iran. The void will create opportunity for new leaders, but we must not assume that this will be another country.
This year Apple showed that it could defy the US government’s request to breach consumer privacy policies; it also showed that it could defy international tax obligations. The decentralisation of multinational companies coupled with their centralised collection of information is allowing them to detach from sovereign control. While countries fall into chaos, companies will fill the power gap.
In parallel to the broadening of company control is a rise in truly decentralised community independence. For now, block chain technology is applied to financial transactions where it allows peer-to-peer payments across a transparent and distributed network. It’s a payment network where all players are equal - no central banks, governments or companies can control the system. If this is applied to other forms of information and resource exchange, communities rather than institutions may fill the void of power.
Uncertainty is a norm. To remain adaptable, open and successful, we must believe that anything can change.
Pierre Heistein is the convener of UCT’s Applied Economics for Smart Decision Making course. Follow him on Twitter @PierreHeistein.