INLSA

NPC chairman Trevor Manuel and deputy chairman Cyril Ramaphosa

Jabulani Sikhakhane

Political Bureau

SOUTH Africa’s pledge to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 2025 could hamper the achievement of the country’s other priorities such as job creation, poverty reduction and faster economic growth unless there was adequate international financing and technological assistance, says the National Planning Commission.

South Africa pledged at the climate change conference held in Copenhagen in 2009 to cut greenhouse gas emissions below a baseline of 34 percent by 2020 and 42 percent by 2025.

“This commitment will present challenges for the economy, which depends on fossil fuels, and will require the design of a more sustainable path,” the commission said in its proposed national development plan to 2030.

These challenges included the fact that South Africa had a systemic shortage of skills and limited state capacity, which were crucial if the country was to make a successful transition to an economy that produced less greenhouse gas.

The transition to a low-carbon and resilient economy called for a state capable of leading, enforcing regulation of greenhouse gas emissions, and responding to the impacts of climate change, the commission said.

It said certain stakeholder groups were already apprehensive about the impact of South Africa’s Copenhagen pledge on the economy and job creation. It did not name them, but Business Unity SA and Cosatu have expressed reservations about emission reduction measures.

The commission’s initial study on the role of mining and mineral beneficiation showed these concerns are not without foundation. The study found that even under strong assumptions of energy intensity improvements and full implementation of the Integrated Resource Plan 2010, which covers 2010 to 2030, the minerals sector would still significantly exceed emissions levels envisaged for 2020 and 2025. Yet the minerals sector was a priority for the government due to its contribution to economic growth and job creation.

“Given this and current realities of international climate mitigation policy, it will be challenging to honour the commitment to reduce South Africa’s emissions without compromising the overriding priorities to create jobs, address poverty, improve public health and grow an internationally competitive economy, without substantial international assistance,” it said.

However, it was in the country’s best interests that an absolute global emissions constraint was put into effect sooner rather than later.

It called for more work to be done to understand how best to plan and manage the transition to a just, resilient and low-carbon economy. New and innovative policy approaches would be required, needing flexibility in the short and medium term, while ensuring alignment with an absolute carbon emissions limit in the long-term.