Forget about Juan Smith, Marius Joubert, Kabamba Floors or any other Cheetahs player that comes to mind. The biggest obstacle to a successful Super 14 start for the Stormers on Saturday is Rassie Erasmus.
The last South African season ended with everyone talking about the "Rassie factor" after his team retained one hand on the Currie Cup trophy, and it appears the new season is going to start in much the same way, with much speculation over what Erasmus is up to, what he is planning and plotting.
Even the biggest critic of the Cheetahs coach will admit that Erasmus is one of the cleverest men in rugby. There might even be an acknowledgement that his shrewdness can manipulate opposition coaches into doing what he wants them to do.
Last season's Currie Cup semifinal against the Sharks is an example. Everything Erasmus did in the buildup to that game sent out the message that his men would be sticking to the conservative, field-position-orientated game that had drawn such derision from the Sharks' celebrated back-room assistant, David Campese.
But the Sharks ended up being floored by a high-intensity running effort. Expecting the Cheetahs to play it close, the Sharks were at sea when they ran it wide, and by the 20-minute mark their Currie Cup challenge had been blown away.
Sharks coach Dick Muir, if you ask him, will tell you that it was not his players who got beaten that day, who lost the match for the Sharks, but he and his fellow management members. They had a carefully planned counter to the expected Cheetahs strategy, but their opponents produced the unexpected.
In short, Muir was outfoxed, and he is unlikely to be the last coach who suffers such a fate.
Whether or not Stormers coach Kobus van der Merwe is destined to be a victim in Bloemfontein at the weekend may depend on the authenticity of the message that Erasmus is sending out this time.
In complete contrast to the Currie Cup semi-final last October, Erasmus is now telegraphing an intention to run it at the Stormers. His selections suggest as much, with Herkie Kruger destined to start ahead of Willem de Waal in what is regarded as a shock move.
According to Cheetahs team manager Naka Drotske, the side will only be finalised this morning, but it is an open secret that Kruger will wear the No 10, while Tiger Mangweni is down to play fullback, and not Springbok Bevin Fortuin.
"There is nothing wrong with Willem, he is available for selection and would be able to play if picked," said Drotske.
"However, in the case of Bevin, he is out because he had an off-season operation and is yet to get fully up to speed. It is the same with (centre) Barry Goodes. They will return to rugby later in the season."
Drotske said the team would be made available to the public on Thursday, but he gave an assurance that big lock Barend Pieterse, one of the stars of last year's successful domestic campaign, would not be part of the mix.
"Barend broke his foot against the Sharks and he will be out of rugby for anything between three and six months," said Drotske.
Coach Erasmus, who himself suffered a foot injury that ended his career, will be hoping that Pieterse can make a full recovery, for there is no denying his value to the Cheetahs team. The news on the rest of the Cheetahs forwards was however a lot more encouraging.
"Both Darron Nel and Rory Duncan, the other two locks, have been passed fit to play. That is good news for us as there were doubts over both of them after the Sharks match and they both had to undergo scans. The rest of the guys injured in that game, such as scrumhalf Michael Claassens, have also been passed fit."
The composition of the likely Cheetahs team is no secret - unless of course the Cheetahs are sending out deliberate disinformation - and certainly on paper it is well equipped to run, with Philip Burger one of the most devastating attackers from the back and Kabamba Floors also suited to the running game.
Late on Wednesday though it was still unclear whether Floors would be starting at No 8, and he was bracketed with Rynhardt van der Merwe, who was Erasmus's first "fetcher" No 8. Hendro Scholtz, rated by Erasmus as a player good enough to fill the specialist openside role for the Springboks (he was capped under Rudolf Straeuli), is over his calf injury and will complete the loose trio with skipper Smith.
However, while the signs are certainly there that the Cheetahs will run, surely there must be a nagging doubt among the Stormers brains trust that this will happen. For a start, the Stormers are a side that feeds off turn-overs, and a running game from their opponents could just play into their hands.
The probable appearance of five forwards on the bench, with Ollie le Roux and Jannie du Plessis the two prop reserves, does suggest the Cheetahs have the personnel in their 22 to employ a different plan to the one the Stormers appear to be expecting.
Probable Cheetahs team:
Tiger Mangweni, Philip Burger, Marius Joubert, Hendrik Meyer, Ronnie Cooke, Herkie Kruger, Michael Claassens, Rynhardt van der Merwe/Kabamba Floors, Juan Smith, Hendro Scholtz, Rory Duncan, Darron Nel/Corniel van Zyl, CJ van der Linde, Richardt Strauss, Wian du Preez.