SO THE fracking deed is done, and Mineral Resources Minister, Susan Shabangu says the moratorium on exploration for shale gas in the Karoo can go ahead. She also said that this exploration would not involve any actual hydraulic fracturing, a statement that has been pooh poohed by no less an authority than Cornell University’s Prof Anthony Ingraffea, one of the world’s leading experts on (and opponents of) fracking.
In an interview with our environment writer, Melanie Gosling, Ingraffea – who was named one of Time magazine’s “50 People Who Matter” last year – said that to say there would be no fracking during exploration was “disingenuous”.
Then there has been the much-touted job creation and poverty alleviation that will flow from fracking the Karoo. But will any jobs be created? Will any poverty (other than that of those who get the fracking licences) be alleviated?
None at all, says the convener of UCT’s Applied Economics for Smart Decision-Making course, Pierre Heistein, in a column in our sister newspaper, Business Report.
“Fracking has shown to have a very low employment to production ratio. Job numbers must also not be confused with job creation; most of the jobs in fracking will come from qualified experts in the oil and gas industry and few will go to unskilled workers.
“In the South African context, this means no local job creation, but rather job transferring from other industries or the importation of foreign skills. Factor in the opportunity cost of not servicing South Africa’s energy needs through job-intensive industries such as green energies, and fracking could result in a net loss of employment.”
In theory, there should be no problem with at least testing to see whether or not there actually is this vast deposit – some estimates put it at around 400 trillion cubic feet, making it potentially the world’s largest gas reserve.
But the problem is that in our current weak administrative and regulatory environment, and with the enormous capacity that some of our leaders have for self-enrichment, this could be the genie in the lamp. Once the genie is out, how do you get it back in again?
And for me, there is a much bigger issue at stake here, and that is why are we considering fracking the Karoo at all? Even if they find vast reserves of shale gas, why not leave it in the grounds for future generations to use? The world is awash in natural gas right now. Prices are plummeting.
In a comprehensive review of the southern African gas situation published on this page on August 28, Peter Haylett, chairman of the Cape Chamber of Commerce and Industry’s Industrial Focus portfolio committee, spelled out the situation with great elegance.
I’m going to quote Haylett at length, because he said it so well. Pointing out that the massive Mossgas project was based on the discovery of just one trillion cubic feet (tcf) of gas, he said that “the US firm Anadarko has now confirmed discoveries of 100 tcf off Mozambique, and the Italian firm ENI recently announced a major new discovery to take its total reserves up to 70 tcf. At the same time, the estimates of the Tanzanian gas reserves were trebled to 29 tcf. That gives us an impressive total of 200 tcf and exploration is gathering pace. The US Geological Survey now estimates that the East Africa region holds 441.1 tcf of natural gas. That is more than Russia’s confirmed reserves of 400 tcf which, until recently, was regarded as the biggest source of natural gas in the world... The East Africa gas field is massive and of geopolitical importance. It is the kind of resource that changes history.”
He says “gas has now become a major resource for the Southern African Development Community countries and trade in gas could boost the economy of the whole region. It will bring new money into the region, stimulate trade between the SADC countries (and) provide the electricity we need”.
So it really makes no sense whatsoever for us to be destroying the Karoo – and don’t believe otherwise, fracking will destroy the Karoo – when we could be integrating into the Mozambican and Tanzanian gas fields, and simultaneously pursuing alternatives in wind, solar, geothermal and tidal forms of renewable energy.
One thing is certain, though – the intense campaign against fracking has sharply focused the country’s interest, and once drilling starts, the prospectors and gas miners will not be able to get away with the kind of criminal behaviour they have in the United States and elsewhere. We won’t allow it.