Melanie Gosling
Environment Writer
THE Western Cape is in the throes of a “green drought”.
While much of the province looks green from earlier winter rains, long-term forecasts are that the province is unlikely to get any significant rainfall for the rest of the year, meaning the future of crops and pastures already growing now hangs in the balance.
Western Cape farmers are holding thumbs for late winter or early spring rains, but the South African Weather Service’s long-term forecast says the province has pretty much had all the rain we are going to get this year.
This week, dams are 72 percent full, compared to 102 percent in the same week last year and 2013, 92 percent in 2012 and 83 percent in 2011.
And with the dry spell, summer is approaching, during which the likelihood that most of the country will experience extreme temperatures is high.
The South African Weather Service’s forecast issued yesterday said: “The likelihood of the country experiencing drier and warmer conditions towards the summer season is cautiously high. The conditions may promote a regional or localised drought.”
The forecast said while it was probable that the eastern part of South Africa would get rains well above normal during spring, forecasts for the rest of the country are that most of the regions would get below normal spring rainfall.
Weather Service long-term forecaster Cobus Olivier said yesterday: “The Western Cape is moving out of the rainfall season, and there is no indication of any resurgence.”
The weather systems that bring winter rain to the Western Cape have already moved further south. Olivier said while the forecasts indicated a possibility that the eastern part of the province would get higher-than-normal rainfall for rest of the year, this would not have much of an impact.
“It’s all relative. If the normal rainfall for that time of the year is already low, a higher-than-normal rainfall will not have much of an impact. If the normal rainfall is, say, 5mm, and the region gets 6mm, that is above normal, but is relatively insignificant,” Olivier said.
Carl Opperman, chief executive of Agri Wes-Cape, said: “The rural areas look beautiful and green, but we call this a ‘green drought’.
“There was enough rain for the crops to start growing, but there have not been real follow-up rains, and the water content below the roots is pretty dry. We’ve had just enough to keep ticking over.
“It’s not a crisis yet, that will be only when we come to the end of September. Let’s see what happens in the next four to six weeks. By then, you will know if your crop will grow,” Opperman said.
Some areas of the Western Cape had already been drier than normal, and sheep and cattle farmers were having to feed livestock that would normally live off pasture.
“The Swartland had a very dry summer and not a very wet winter, so they are having to feed livestock out of their pocket. The wheat is dryland farming, and so far about 50 percent of the wheat has already flowered and the rest still has to flower.
“We’ve had similar situations that we’ve got through. You’ve just got to believe.”
Louis van Zyl, of Hortgro, which represents the deciduous fruit farmers, said fruit trees were dormant in winter, but would need irrigation water in spring.
“The water comes mostly from farm dams on the properties. These are mostly not as full as we would want, but last year we got most of our rain in September, so there’s still hope.”
Rashid Khan, regional director of the Department of Water and Sanitation, said yesterday that all the dams were more than two-thirds full and the ground was still wet.
“So, it will not be too difficult to reach water security. But we did start with lower levels, and if we have higher summer temperatures, that means more evaporation.”