Key African Union elections add uncertainty amid the pressing demands of conflicts and crises across Africa, writes Liesl Louw-Vaudran.
Africa starts the new year with many burning issues from last year that need urgent action. The crisis in Burundi, where grave human rights violations are continuing, and the war in South Sudan are the two most pressing of these.
This year, a number of important elections will take place in Africa.
Uganda’s presidential polls are being held next month, and those in the Democratic Republic of Congo later this year will also be top of mind for most Africa watchers.
It will also be a challenging year for Nigeria’s President Muhammadu Buhari, who will have to make good on his 2015 election promises. These include dealing effectively with terror group Boko Haram, bringing back the kidnapped Chibok girls, continuing the fight against corruption and boosting economic development, despite the slump in the oil price.
But what are we missing, beyond the big newsmakers?
In 2016, we should watch for surprises from unexpected quarters.
One of these may be from Zimbabwe. President Robert Mugabe, who turns 92 next month, is not immortal.
The new year was barely a few days old when protests broke out in densely populated Chitungwiza municipality, close to Harare, about a new operating licence fee for commuter vehicles.
According to Zimbabwean media, former finance minister Tendai Biti, now leader of the People’s Democratic Party, said Zimbabwe would be “made ungovernable” this year by citizens unhappy with Mugabe and the ruling Zanu-PF.
How likely is it that full-scale violence could break out in Zimbabwe?
For now, concerns about instability are focused mainly on the succession battle.
Between 2000 and 2014, political conflict in Zimbabwe was predominantly between Zanu-PF and the opposition Movement for Democratic Change and its offshoots.
Following Zanu-PF’s expulsion of former deputy president Joice Mujuru just over a year ago, focus has shifted to the ruling party.
Analysts are watching to see if Mujuru and expelled party stalwart Didymus Mutasa will team up with the opposition against Mugabe.
Mugabe’s wife, Grace, has stepped into the fray. Since being appointed head of the Zanu-PF Women’s League, she has behaved as though single-handedly steering the former liberation movement.
Deputy President Emmerson Mnangagwa, the heir apparent, is playing his cards close to his chest. He shows loyalty to the Mugabes, but how long will this last?
Zimbabwe is an important member of the Southern African Development Community (SADC). If large-scale conflict erupts here, it could be disastrous for the region.
The AU and the AU Peace and Security Department will also have to look at smaller, less influential states this year.
A continuing challenge, which may come to a head following next month’s elections, is the situation in the Comoros.
Over the years, the AU has been active in bringing stability to the Indian Ocean archipelago.
In November, AU Commission chairwoman Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma sent Tanzania’s former president, Jakaya Kikwete, to Moroni to discuss the political crisis with all actors. The decision was sparked by former president Ahmed Abdallah Mohamed Sambi’s insistence on standing for election, despite a rotating arrangement between the three islands that make up the Comoros.
On December 25, the courts rejected Sambi’s candidature. He has not said whether he will appeal. Elections are slated for February 21.
As the AU Peace and Security Council grapples with the many peace and security challenges this year, it is itself in for a major overhaul this year. This will be something to watch, since these are the voices that will weigh in on Africa’s most pressing crises.
The 15 members of the AU Peace and Security Council are up for re-election at the end of this month. Speculation is rife whether AU heavyweights like Nigeria, South Africa, Algeria and Ethiopia will retain their seats. The decision will be made at the 26th AU summit, in Addis Ababa on January 23-31.
Later in the year, a decision will have to be made about a new AU Commission chairperson.
Dlamini-Zuma is allowed to stand for re-election, but many at the AU think she will step down to campaign for the presidency in South Africa.
Finally, there are a number of important but easily overlooked presidential elections in francophone Africa.
In Niger, elections are slated for next month, with a tough battle looming between outgoing president Mahamadou Issoufou and opposition leader Hama Amadou.
In Benin, outgoing president Thomas Boni Yayi could be succeeded by “an international president”. The French-educated and former French government adviser Lionel Zinsou is widely expected to win the elections on February 28.
In the Republic of Congo-Brazzaville, long-time president Denis Sassou Nguesso is expected to renew his mandate at the end of March. A constitutional referendum in October on allowing Sassou Nguesso to stand for another term went largely unnoticed. It seems there may be little to worry about for Sassou Nguesso, who has been in power, on and off, since 1979.
Chad’s President Idriss Déby, who has been in power since 1990, is a candidate for his fifth, or sixth, mandate in April. Term limits were scrapped in this Central African country years ago.
Regardless of whether these elections hit international headlines, 2016 is set to be an eventful year in Africa.
* Louw-Vaudran is an Institute for Security Studies consultant. This article has been shortened and is published courtesy of ISS Africa.
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