INLSA

Clem Sunter. Picture: Phill Magakoe

South Africa could face its own Arab Spring if the situation was not handled carefully, world-renowned author and award-winning scenario planner Clem Sunter has warned

Sunter said that country had the same trends as those in the Arab Spring countries to the north: a high level of youth unemployment, a high degree of alienation and social networks.

The youth unemployment rate had to be brought down and it was sad that there was not some sort of incentive in last week’s Budget for companies to take on young people, he told guests at a PricewaterhouseCoopers post-Budget presentation at the ICC in Durban.last week.

He felt that such an incentive was “absolutely essential” and believed it should take the form of a kind of national service – although not military– where young people could be taught skills.

Sunter also felt that more should have been done for small businesses in the budget.

Referring to the country’s vision for 5 million jobs by 2020, he said: “Let’s create 1 million new businesses by 2020. That’s where we will create 5 million jobs.”

He gave South Africa a 50 percent probability of remaining in the “premier league” of globally ranked economies.

The country faced its second tipping point (the first was in the 1990s), and what was needed now was discussion on economic freedom and a blueprint for the country.

There was “no way” this could be done by the government alone, and would need the involvement of the chief executives of the top 50 companies, the unions and civil society.

Sunter warned against the red flags of nationalisation (“a ridiculous concept” which the country could not afford), clumsy implementation of a national health insurance, which would lead to a decline in private medical care and an exodus, the media tribunal with punitive powers, and land grabs.

Sunter co-authored a best-selling book with Chantal Ilbury, The Mind of a Fox, which anticipated a major terrorist attack on a Western city before the September 11 tragedy.

They have developed a unique methodology that integrates scenario planning into the mainstream process of strategic planning and decision-making.

Sunter has even given a scenario presentation at the Central Party School in Beijing, a rare privilege for a foreigner.

He stressed he did not make predictions, and that his suggested scenarios got people to think about what they could do.