By Melanie-Ann Feris and The Independent
Over one million plants and animals, including 60 percent of the protected animal species in the Kruger National Park, are destined to die out within decades due to manmade climate change.
These are the findings of an international study published in the latest issue of Nature, in which scientists from eight countries warn that, based even on the most conservative estimates, rising temperatures will trigger a global mass extinction of unprecedented proportions.
The study investigated 1 103 species of plants, mammals, birds, reptiles, frogs, butterflies and other insects living in six regions of the world - Europe, South Africa, Australia, Brazil, Mexico and Costa Rica.
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| 'There will no longer be anywhere climatically suitable for these species to live' |
Of 179 species that were studied in the Kruger National Park, four species are certain to become extinct. They are: the golden mole, the armed lizard, a type of dung beetle and a specific species of termite.
The IUCN, The World Conservation Union, said on Wednesday that climate change could rival habitat loss as a threat to the survival of species.
The findings were made during a study - the largest scientific collaboration ever of its kind - promoted by a series of workshops held by the IUCN.
Scientists found that up to 37 percent of species sampled in the study regions could be driven to extinction because they cannot adapt to the climate changes that are likely to occur between now and 2050.
A warmer world would push most species towards the poles or higher up mountains but for many this would be impossible. The home territories of those that could move might be so reduced as to make a breeding population unviable.
| 'Other species are expected to survive in much reduced areas' |
Extinction could come about after a slow decline in a breeding population or from a catastrophic crash in numbers because warmer temperatures will increase the risk of climate extremes such as droughts or floods.
The IUCN worked with the National Botanical Institute of South Africa to model more than 300 plant species in South Africa's Cape Floristic Region.
There, 30 to 40 percent of Proteaceae, including South Africa's national flower, the King Protea, the daystar and the pincushion, are expected to die out between now and 2050. Another is the Toffeeapple conebush, Leucadendron 'touwsrivierenses'.
Collaborators from Stellenbosch and Wits universities found that Red Data Book species, habitat specialists, and species from the arid western regions of the country were particularly vulnerable to climate driven extinctions.
"In some cases we found that there will no longer be anywhere climatically suitable for these species to live. In other cases they may be unable to reach distant regions where the climate will be suitable," said co-author Guy Midgley, of the National Botanical Institute in Cape Town.
"Other species are expected to survive in much reduced areas, where they may then be at risk from other threats."
Two months ago, the IUCN's Red Data List revealed that 12 258 species already faced extinction, threatened by habitat loss due to urban growth, agriculture, and cattle grazing.
Among them is South Africa's riverine rabbit, which was moved up from being endangered to become critically endangered.
The most alarming aspect of the list was that more than 200 new species had been added since 2002.
Now it seems as if global climate change could be an even bigger threat to species survival.
"This study makes clear that climate change is the biggest new extinction threat," said co-author Lee Hannah at the IUCN in Washington DC.
"The combination of increasing habitat loss and climate change together is particularly worrying. Increases in temperature can force a species to move toward its preferred, usually cooler, climate range. If habitat destruction has already altered those habitats, the species will have no safe haven," she said.
The study found of Australia's more than 400 butterfly species, all but three may no longer be able to survive in the current home ranges. More than half, including the orange white-spot skipper, may be wiped out. The Boyd's forest dragon is also threatened.
In Europe, the study predicts a 25 percent extinction rate for birds, including the azure-winged magpie.
In Mexico's Chihuahuan desert, extinction would be particularly high because species, like the Cape pygmy owl, would have to travel long distances to cooler climates.
In Costa Rica, where extreme temperatures might prevent cloud formation, creatures like the golden toad are under threat.
- This article was originally published on page 1 of The Star on January 08, 2004
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