So, did we honestly save R30 billion by cancelling the A400M contract? Not really, argues Helmoed Romer Heitman.
The decision to pull out of the Airbus A400M project has been hailed, but what now? There seems to have been very little - if any - thought given to the impact of this decision on South Africa's capability to meet its regional responsibilities. Nor to the likely cost. We may yet find that "saving" R30 billion by cancelling the contract is going to cost rather more than that when the dust has settled.
The implications and costs will be strategic, economic and political.
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The key strategic issue is if South Africa accepts its regional security responsibilities, it will mean expanded involvement in peacekeeping, crisis response, stabilisation and relief operations in Africa.
One critical requirement is airlift. Eight A400Ms would have given the SA Air Force at least minimum long-range and heavy-lift capability.
They would have also given it time in which to consider how best to replace the 46-year-old Hercules.
So, what now? Does South Africa continue chartering old ex-Soviet Air Force transports until one of them falls out of the sky, which they do with depressing regularity? Or do we buy other transport aircraft to give us the required capability. If so, which aircraft?
Some believe that the current Hercules, the C-130J, is the answer. It is an extremely capable aircraft, but it cannot, by itself, meet the requirement. Simply buying the same basic payload capacity would require 15 C-130Js for about R19bn, depending on logistical and technical support.
That would seem to have saved us R11bn. But the C-130J can't transport the large vehicles and heavier equipment required for future missions.
The C-130J is not a practical means of deploying an Oryx helicopter.
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