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 Swine flu cases expected to rise next week
    July 14 2009 at 08:55AM Get IOL on your
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By Kanina Foss

Swine flu cases will probably spike when schools reopen next week. Health officials will monitor schools, but are still advising that mild cases should be treated no differently from seasonal flu.

Only patients with serious symptoms - such as high fever, persistent vomiting, pain in the chest, or shortness of breath - should seek medical assistance. These are symptoms that people would seek medical assistance for anyway, says National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD) deputy director Lucille Blumberg.

The number of confirmed swine flu cases in South Africa is 75. Once this number reaches 100, the NICD will stop counting. It will focus instead on severe cases and those at high risk because of compromised immune systems, such as HIV-positive people. The institute will also monitor schools.
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'It's something we need to monitor very carefully'
Counting cases was resource intensive, said the NICD on Monday, and served no more purpose than counting cases of seasonal flu. The overwhelming majority of cases worldwide had been mild, and had required no special treatment.

The World Health Organisation (WHO) has said the spread of the H1N1 virus is inevitable, and the NICD is expecting many more South Africans will be infected. It is unsure how the country's high HIV prevalence will affect the severity of infections.

"It's something we need to monitor very carefully," said Blumberg.

The highest number of confirmed cases are in Gauteng (39), followed by the Eastern Cape (nine), and Western Cape (five).

But the number of actual cases could be much greater. In the US, the country with the highest number of infections, health officials have stopped diagnosing mild cases and estimate a million infections.

In Africa, the total number of confirmed cases stands at 193, with no deaths. However, the first patient diagnosed in Botswana contracted the virus inside the country.


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