By Zwelethu Jolobe
Legend has it that in 1488, Bartolomeu Dias rounded the Cape in weather so cruel he named it Cabo das Tormentas, the "Cape of Storms". On his return to Lisbon, he told King Joćo II about the voyage.
Afraid that sailors wouldn't dare round a Cape so dangerous, Joćo II decided to rename it Cabo da Bõa Esperenēa, the "Cape of Good Hope". However, if Joćo II had a front-row seat, five centuries later, to the politics of that vast land that lies beyond the majestic cliffs, he would certainly have agreed with Dias.
Next year, South Africa experiences its fourth democratic general election. Given the storm clouds gathering over the political landscape, examining the state of electoral readiness of the political parties is crucial. A proper assessment, however, requires a comparative examination with previous elections.
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Since 1994, South Africa's proportional-representation electoral politics have been characterised by the increasing dominance of one party, the African National Congress, whose share of the vote has steadily increased: from 62,65 percent in 1994, to 66,35 percent in 1999, to 69,68 percent in 2004.
While many commentators have argued about the extent to which these successive majorities pose a threat to the sustainability of the new democratic system, very few have looked at the problem of lacklustre performance and inefficiency in the ranks of opposition parties, and their inability to mould an alternative to the ANC.
Nonetheless, a useful place to start is to examine the politics of the 2004 general election, and what this can tell us about the upcoming one.
The ANC entered the 2004 general election campaign under pressure: there were increasing tensions in the tripartite alliance, largely around the government's macroeconomic policies; it was facing charges of failings in the delivery of housing, water, electricity, welfare and healthcare; and, more importantly, there was intense internal conflict in the party hierarchy between factions lined up behind one or the other of Jacob Zuma, who was accused of accepting a bribe, and Bulelani Ngcuka, who was accused of being an apartheid-era spy.
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