By Caitlin Ross
Research conducted by the cities of Cape Town and Durban indicates that the consequences of rising sea levels are far greater and far-reaching than previously believed, and it predicts huge knock-on effects and cost.
A prior assessment done by the International Panel for Climate Change concluded South Africa's coastal vulnerability was not significant.
However new research points to potentially catastrophic scenarios resulting from temperature change and the disintegration of ice sheets.
Speaking at the Climate Justice Conference currently on outside Malmesbury yesterday, development economist Anton Cartwright said much of South Africa's coastal development had been "imprudent".
As the coast was deemed one of the country's greatest assets, it had seen rapid development, exacerbating its vulnerability.
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Wealthy South Africans, who occupied most coastal property, would continue to experience most of the direct risks of rising sea levels, such as storm surges that degrade natural buffer areas. There were also numerous secondary or indirect risks threatening the greater population.
Cartwright listed potential scenarios such as disruptions in goods and service delivery, high insurance premiums, strain on disaster relief and governance, and psycho-emotional ill-health.
Direct risks included physical tidal force resulting in loss of life, infrastructure, heritage and real estate during periods of extreme high tide.
A rise in sea level of 2.5m, which had a projected likelihood of 95 percent by 2100, had a potential cost of R5,2-billion attached to it.
He said it was now acknowledged that "even small increases in sea level profoundly truncate the return times of extreme storm surges, and that climate change itself may be making these storms more intense and frequent".
The better news was that South Africa was in line with the global mean, which meant global research was applicable to the country and made "planning a bit easier".
Cartwright said that as things stood, decision makers were unsure about which of the range of possible interventions to implement, and how to "make difficult trade-offs in the context of sea level rise uncertainty".
He said the most effective form of sea level rise reduction involved the enforcement and protection of a coastal buffer zone, as proposed in the Integrated Coastal Management Bill (2007). - West Cape News
- This article was originally published on page 10 of Cape Argus on October 29, 2009
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