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| Who will be the next pope? |
| April 01 2005 at 05:22PM |
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By Nicholas Rigillo
Vatican watchers and insiders are reluctant to name names, if only because these names have a tendency to change frequently. A famous Italian saying about conclaves holds that "he who goes in as pope comes out a cardinal". The idea behind the saying is that someone who is widely tipped as a candidate in fact loses his chances of being elected. In fact, the suggestion does not always stand to scrutiny. Of the past five papal elections, Vatican experts note, only one - that of Karol Wojtyla in 1978 - was a clear surprise, if only because most had assumed the next pope would be an Italian. One way of predicting whom the next pope might be involves drawing up a portrait of an ideal candidate, and then match names to go with it.
"John Paul II directed much of his energies towards the outside world rather than on the inner workings of the Church," Allen argues. "Under his pontificate, liberals and conservatives have found it increasingly difficult to talk to each other," he adds. At the same time, demands for "collegiality" and "subsidiarity", two terms used to describe the need for lower-ranking clergy to be given a greater say in church government, are increasingly being voiced. These could favour Cardinal Godfried Danneels of Belgium, who is seen as a reformist who often campaigns for a greater spread of power within the Church. According to the late Peter Hebblethwaite, author of a book aptly called The Next Pope, Danneels is "one of the few cardinals with vision and clear analysis". However, Hebblethwaite notes in his book, "he is not particularly inspiring" and is said to lack human warmth. Although many believe the papacy should be returned to an Italian, Allen argues that the church no longer needs an "administrative pope". Instead, it needs a man capable of arousing interest in all corners of the world, particularly where converts are needed. Giacomo Galeazzi, a Vatican expert in Rome, agrees. "They won't elect an Italian because that would mean withdrawing to put the house in order at a time when there is a need for expansion," he argues. Both Allen and Galeazzi believe, therefore, that the next pope could easily be a foreigner, even a non-European. American candidates won't be in contention, Allen says, because the Vatican jealously guards its diplomatic independence, while an American pope would give rise to suspicion that he is being influenced by the United States. Galeazzi notes that after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, there is even more need for a pope that comes from a developing country. He cites Asia, where political instability could favour the Church in the future, and Latin America, where the Church has been doing particularly well. The name of Cardinal Dario Castrillon Hoyos features high up in his list of candidates. Castrillon, who is in his 70s, is described by Hebblethwaite as being "mind-blowingly conservative on Church matters", but also "a man of courage". He is known for helping the derelict and confronting corrupt coffee barons and policemen in his native Colombia. It is said that he once disguised himself as a milkman and visited drug baron Pablo Escobar to force him to confess his sins. Castrillon currently heads the Vatican's Congregation for the Clergy, an influential body in charge of priests around the world. His chances are also boosted by the fact that Latin Americans form one of the biggest blocks of voters at the next conclave. And several church members now openly speak of the next pope coming from Latin America. Cardinal Oscar AndrCs Rodriguez Maradiaga, archbishop of Tegucigalpa, is another Latin American name that is often mentioned, along with Cardinal Claudio Hummes of Brazil, the biggest and most influential Catholic country in Latin America. Other Latin American candidates include Argentina's Jorge Mario Bergoglio and Norberto Rivera Carrera of Mexico. Much has been written about the possibility that the next pope could be black. In this context, the name of Cardinal Francis Arinze of Nigeria is often mentioned. But as one Vatican expert in Rome once noted: "If even such a modern country as the United States has not had a black President yet, how can you expect a deeply conservative body like the Church to elect a black pope?" Several experts also dispute the view that the next pope will be as conservative as John Paul II, in spite of the fact that he has appointed all but a handful of the cardinal electors. "History teaches us that cardinals appointed by conservative popes don't necessarily elect a conservative," says Allen. He cites the example of John XXIII, who succeeded the highly conservative Pius XII, and was responsible for the most revolutionary act of modernisation of the Church in its recent history - the Second Vatican Council. In a recent article published by The Irish Times, Father Richard McBrien, a professor of Theology at the University of Notre Dame, Indiana, argues that the next pope will not be a carbon copy of John Paul II. "History shows that the longer a pope remains in office, the less likely it is that he will be followed by a photo-copy of himself," McBrien was quoted as saying. Like many Vatican experts, McBrien believes that after the lengthy papacy of Karol Wojtyla, cardinals will be looking for "a transitional pope". That would exclude cardinals in their 50s or early 60s, like Christoph Schonborn of Austria. One, less controversial candidate, is Cardinal Walter Kasper of Germany. Another German often mentioned is Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger, one of John Paul's closest advisors. Italy's contingent is lead by Dionigi Tettamanzi, 71, Angelo Scola, Tarcisio Bertone and Camillo Ruini. Asia's top candidate is Ivan Dias of India. - Sapa-dpa
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