By Simon Radcliffe
What have oil and xenophobia got to do with each other? What is the link between the finiteness of oil and South Africans driving Zimbabweans living in South Africa out of their homes?
Much of what we are witnessing in real time on our television screens and in our newspapers seems unconnected and yet when we dig into it, we find that events taking place in one part of the world can lead to profound changes in other parts.
I am reminded of a film I once saw by the great Indian director Satyajit Ray, called Distant Thunder.
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...our dependence on oil has the ability to expose the cracks and fissures in our society The film is set in the rural Indian province of Bengal during World War 2, and examines the effects of war taking place in other parts of the world and contributing to the Great Famine of 1943, during which more than three million people died in the villages in that area.
The film shows with masterful skill how traditional village norms break down under the pressure of hunger.
So how does this relate to current events in South Africa? Over the past 100 or more years we have built a thriving global economy capable of fantastic feats and yet one that is incredibly vulnerable.
It is vulnerable because of the high level of dependence we have on oil and other cheap sources of energy. Cheap, abundant oil has enabled the incredible growth we have seen. And yet it is a finite resource which we are consuming at a rate of 85-million barrels a day.
The issue we are now being confronted with is that oil depletion isn't a straight line, where we can use as much of it as we choose and then, suddenly, it is gone. Global oil production follows a roughly bell-shaped curve.
We will be faced with choices which we will be called on by circumstances to make Production starts off small, increases until it reaches a maximum point and then begins to decline until reaches zero. This is an observable and empirically verifiable fact and is well documented.
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