By Charles Mangwiro
Maputo - Mozambique President Armando Guebuza looks set to win re-election this week, with splits within the opposition ranks precluding any serious challenge to the millionaire businessman and his ruling Frelimo party.
The Mozambique Democratic Movement (MDM), a splinter of Renamo, a former rebel movement and now the main opposition, had been seen running Guebuza close until many of its candidates were barred from the contest due to registration irregularities.
Nearly 30 parties registered for the Oct. 28 poll, but the election commission only allowed candidates from 19 of them to run. Only Frelimo and Renamo have been allowed to contest in every constituency for the 250 seats in parliament.
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"It will be a good result if MDM elects 50 members to parliament," said political commentator Antonio Gaspar. "They were very strong before exclusion but now they have been weakened."
Frelimo, which has ruled the former Portuguese colony since elections in 1994 marked the end of a 16-year civil war, won 160 seats in parliament in 2004, while Guebuza notched up 64 percent of the popular vote.
His only presidential challengers are Renamo head Afonso Dhlakama and MDM leader Davis Simango.
"I think Guebuza will retain his presidential seat and his Frelimo will win a majority but not more than the two thirds that would allow it to change the constitution," political analyst Calton Cadeado said.
Guebuza is running on a "Force of Change" ticket, and has promised to continue to relax foreign investment rules and push ahead with economic reforms.
Dhlakama, who led the 16-year armed struggle against Frelimo, is also trying to court the foreign capital that helped the agriculture-dependent economy grow more than 6 percent last year. Expansion is forecast at 4.5 percent for 2009.
"I have waited for too long. This is my time. I'm going to attract more foreign investors to remove this country from its state of poverty," he told a campaign rally in the northern province of Nampula.
Despite being one of Africa's poorest countries, Mozambique's tourist potential and untapped mineral and energy resources have started to draw foreign companies and investors, particularly from neighbouring South Africa.
Just under the half the population of 22.9 million are registered to vote. Full official results are not due until Nov. 12, although unofficial tallies, especially from cities, should become clear from Wednesday evening. -
Reuters
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