By Shapi Shacinda
Lusaka - Zambia, one of Africa's biggest success stories under the late president Levy Mwanawasa, faces political and economic uncertainty as the succession race heats up.
Rifts are widening in the ruling Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD), which only narrowly beat the opposition at the last election, raising questions over policies appreciated by donors and investors in Zambia.
More than a dozen candidates are vying to lead the party into a presidential vote in November to succeed Mwanawasa.
Investors hope Zambia's new leadership will stick to Mwanawasa's fiscal discipline, which won him praise from Western donors and billions of dollars in debt relief.
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In a sign of concerns over economic policies, the head of the Chamber of Zambian Mines (CZM) called on the government this week to ensure the investment environment remains stable.
"I see possible cracks after the burial of Mwanawasa because he was like a coating of paint hiding the cracks that have always existed in the party," said Bennett Siamwiza, of the University of Zambia.
Some of the sheen is also coming off Zambia's economic performance. The kwacha has lost six percent of its value against the dollar since Mwanawasa's death.
Finance Minister Ng'andu Magande, among those contesting the leadership, said the inflation rate of 13.2 percent was far above the seven percent target.
On paper, Magande is well qualified to steer Zambia's economy. He was Mwanawasa's point man on pulling in more foreign investors to mining. But analysts say he does not have enough grassroots support.
The other top contender, acting President Rupiah Banda, has held many diplomatic posts but is not an MMD insider.
"(Banda) is a man of integrity but I don't think he can hold the MMD together because he is considered an outsider and was only brought in the MMD for political expedience," said Bennett Siamwiza, a University of Zambia historian.
Other contenders are Home Affairs Minister Ronnie Shikapwasha, a former pilot, prominent lawyer Wila Mung'omba, a former IMF official, and Health Minister Brian Chituwo, a retired army officer and medical doctor.
The divisions within the ruling party could cost it ground to main opposition leader Michael Sata - who narrowly lost to Mwanawasa in 2006 - particularly if infighting gets worse.
Sata has criticised the government's pro-business policies and crucial Chinese investments in Zambia, saying the money does not improve the lives of poor Zambians.
Oliver Saasa, of Zambia's Premier Consult, said the ruling party risks scaring investors away.
"If this leads to a split then it will not be good for the country because investors who want to come in and those that have already invested here will take a wait-and-see position," he said.
Zambia's economic track record of five percent growth should still reassure investors, said Razia Khan, head of Africa research at Standard Chartered.
- This article was originally published on page 8 of Cape Times on September 05, 2008
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