By Paul Hoffman
The leaders of COPE, the new breakaway movement from the ANC, have been busily formulating the policies of their fledgling party and will present them in Bloemfontein to the first congress of their followers on 16 December, an historic date.
Their task is complicated by the unhappy reasons for existence of our newest political party. Judging by the turnout at the recent national convention in Sandton organised and paid for by its leaders and sponsors, much of its initial support emanates from disaffected ANC supporters who, for a variety of reasons, do not see their way clear to continuing to support the ANC.
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Being a breakaway movement of leaders who have in the past aligned themselves with the line taken by ex-president Thabo Mbeki has its challenges. Quite apart from the arms deal, the HIV/Aids debacle, the soft approach to Zimbabwean excesses which has led to a meltdown there and the "Stalin-lite" management style of Mbeki, there are constitutional issues of principle that need to be addressed boldly by the leadership if it is to succeed in distinguishing itself from the ANC and the DA, its two main adversaries in the competition for votes.
The amount of support which COPE draws at the polls will be a litmus test of how well it carves out a space for itself and where exactly in the spectrum of political choices it positions itself. Pundits suggest that its support could be anywhere in the range between 5% and 20% of the popular vote. If most of this support is drawn from the ANC, then COPE may be well placed to hold the balance of power in some provinces and to challenge for control of the country after the 2014 elections. This has the potential to end the political dominance of the ANC that has led to some describing South Africa as a one-party state in the past, and thus open up democratic space and create improved levels.
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