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| Harare fear backlash if Mugabe loses |
| March 28 2008 at 02:21PM |
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By Moshoeshoe Monare Zanu-PF has always, and mostly violently, won the past general and presidential elections. Its violent track record is unnerving political observers in Zimbabwe. The National Constitutional Assembly, a pressure group, is already appealing to members of the security forces to uphold the constitution irrespective of the outcome of tomorrow's elections. "The political elite is hopeful that you will protect their positions and maintain the status quo. The people of Zimbabwe are hopeful that you will support their yearning for change," it said. Abel Chikomo, advocacy co-ordinator with the Media Monitoring Project of Zimbabwe, says he is highly concerned about the subtext in Mugabe's puzzling messages at his party rallies. "The president said (MDC leader Morgan) Tsvangirai would never rule this country. What message is he sending to his supporters who may not be that sophisticated to interpret this as political rhetoric? "Two MDC guys were brutally killed in Bikita West (Masvingo province) just after the 2000 elections by Zanu supporters. "The court acquitted them because the judge accepted their defence that they thought they were fighting a third chimurenga," said an emotional Chikomo. Mugabe said at five different rallies last week that Zimbabwe would never be ruled by "sellouts", and singled out Tsvangirai at two separate rallies, in Kadoma and Chitungwiza, outside Harare. But Joseph Kurebwa, of the University of Zimbabwe's department of political science and administrative studies, says this is just political talk fuelled by the spirited campaigning mood. "Given the high-pitched contestation, we have reached a point where certain utterances are made without intention to cause harm. It is just political speak, and nothing else. I don't think we should raise alarms . . . I don't think it is appropriate to say Mugabe meant what he said," says Kurebwa. However, Chikomo charges that Mugabe is not censured for his "inflammatory" utterances, whereas the MDC's spokesperson, Nelson Chimasa, has been rebuked by the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC). Chimasa also threatened that the violence that gripped Kenya after an election dispute was nothing compared to what would happen in Zimbabwe. "Why was Chimasa rebuked, while Mugabe is left alone. Why is the ZEC not taking actions against the security generals who said they would not salute a puppet?" asks Chikomo. Security hawks such as police commissioner Augustine Chihuri, Zimbabwe's defence force commander, Gen Constantine Chiwenga, and the director of prisons, retired brigadier Paradzai Zimondi, say they will not salute a "puppet" if Mugabe loses the presidential elections. The electoral commission's deputy chairperson, Joyce Laetitia Kazembe, said the commission could not censure the generals because they were not stakeholders. "We regulate the conduct of political parties because they are within the defined category of laws governing us and the elections," she said. Kazembe says she is satisfied with the peaceful mood around tomorrow's political elections, a free atmosphere that was also commended by independent presidential candidate Simba Makoni. Assistant police chief Faustino Mazango announced a "Say No to Political Violence" campaign in Harare on Tuesday. Mazango says police will use any means necessary to quell any form of violence. Zanu-PF has agreed to amend several repressive laws to end political violence and intimidation. However, Mugabe's party security chief, the chairman of the War Veterans' Association, Jabulani Sibanda, animatedly told a rally on Monday Zimbabwe must be defended at all costs against "re-colonialisation". Such "strong words" have unnerved most anti-Mugabe Zimbabweans, who, despite excitement about change, believe violence will erupt if he is defeated. "He has been a ruler for many years. He likes State House. He will fight for it. I am afraid of that. "I don't want Kenya," said a black-market currency speculator who identified himself only as Greatness. He spends his days in Fifth Street, dubbed the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe, buying foreign currency at black market rates. His operations base is hardly a kilometre from Mugabe's State House. Despite Greatness's fears, the opposition believes Mugabe will not have a choice if defeated, because the security chiefs are divided. "I have been assured that in spite of individual utterances by individual members of the security forces, the majority of our armies, the majority of our police, the majority of the Central Intelligence Organisation (CIO) are behind the people. And that they are committed to defend the new Zimbabwe. They are committed for change. The change is not for Robert Mugabe, the change is for the people of Zimbabwe," Tsvangirai told a rally in Harare on Sunday. "To the police, the civil service, to the military, to the CIO, I say you have nothing to fear, we are a government that will be responsible for the national institution. "As long as you are protecting the national voices of Zimbabweans, as long as you are committed to the constitutional order in this country, you have nothing to fear," said Tsvangirai. His rival in the other MDC faction, Arthur Mutambara, told a rally in Kuwadzana, outside Harare, that Makoni was capable of splitting the armed forces to oust Mugabe. "I can't do it, Tsvangirai cannot split the army, the police or the Central Intelligence Agency. But the only person who can do that is Simba Makoni, because he was a member of Zanu-PF politburo," says Mutambara, who warns that the people will rise if Mugabe steals tomorrow's elections. Actually, CIO director Happyton Bonyongwe and the former army chief, Gen Solomon Mujuru, have been linked to Makoni. The former denied it while the latter was quoted by Mugabe as having distanced himself from Makoni, but Mujuru never went public about it. But Mugabe still commands the loyalty of his hawkish securocratic ministers such as state security's Didymus Mutasa, home affairs' Kembo Mohadi and defence's Sydney Sekeramai. But Tsvangirai told his supporters that these security chiefs did not have the support of foot soldiers wearing boots "without soles". He also warned Mugabe that the opposition was ready for his tricks, appealing to his supporters not to leave polling stations after voting. He reminded the foot soldiers that: "You have heard your commanders declare that they would not support and salute anyone other than the current president. "But it is this president and his elite that have made the lives of you, your family and all of us a daily misery. "The security establishment holds the key to what a post election Zimbabwe will look like, and whether reconstruction and development will take hold. You are recognised as a key force in Zimbabwe that holds the balance of power. It is you that can ensure an environment that is conducive to the reconstruction of Zimbabwe." Even though for the first time Zimbabweans are experiencing a free, peaceful and open election climate, the country is uneasy about the consequences of the outcome.
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