Hong Kong - Up to 100-million people could die in weeks if a bird flu pandemic broke out, a senior World Health Organisation (WHO) official has warned while urging countries to make urgent preparations to mitigate its spread.
A global outbreak was almost certain and vaccination programmes would not be enough to halt its advance, Shigeru Omi, WHO's director for the Western Pacific, has said here.
"The most conservative estimate is that seven to 10 million people would die, but the maximum range would be 50 million or, in the worst case, even 100 million people," Omi said in his starkest warning yet of the potential peril presented by a mutation of avian flu to a form that could be transmitted by humans.
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"It will come," he said, during a flying visit here, where the H5N1 flu strain first mutated into a strain lethal to humans.
| 'The consequences will be serious' |
It was impossible to predict when a pandemic would occur, he said, but it would not take long to spread across the world. "It would take only weeks. If we are not prepared, the consequences will be serious."
Avian flu appeared to be entrenched in Asia, where two outbreaks across the region this year claimed the lives of 32 people in Vietnam and Thailand.
It was believed to be transmitted through contact with bird droppings. The speed of its spread and its adaptation to a form that could be carried by pigs and cats were warnings that conditions were ripe for a devastating pandemic.
"The level of transmission is unprecedented. History has told us that on average every 30 years at least a pandemic occurs. The next one is due - some would say it is overdue."
At a summit of world health leaders in Bangkok last week, guidelines were laid down for national preparation plans to reduce the effects of a possible pandemic this winter.
| 'The level of transmission is unprecedented' |
The who is working on the theory that domestic ducks are the main transmitters. Studies suggest the most devastating outbreaks occurred where duck populations were highest. They also found the peak seasonal prevalence of the strain in ducks, during winter, coincided with the peak period of human infections.
"When chickens are infected, they die, but ducks don't develop the symptoms and don't die."
H5N1 was also less prevalent in areas where ducks and chickens were kept apart.
The WHO's working theory appears to have support from the findings of Hong Kong University researchers who claim to have traced the virus found in birds killed this year to a virus that originated in ducks from China.
- This article was originally published on page 2 of Cape Times on November 30, 2004
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