London, England - Just where are we going with electric cars? If the predictions from the early champions of battery vehicles had been right, we'd all be driving at least second-hand Nissan Leafs by now.
Despite the ongoing rush of electric and hybrid models arriving into the new car market right up until this year, they don't seem to be making much headway.
The figures seem to be booming, if you look at the numbers from the organisation backing ultra-low-emission vehicles. The industry-backed Go Ultra Low campaign says 14 498 battery v ehicles and plug-in hybrids were sold in Britain during the first six months of 2015. That's a 256 percent year-on-year increase, they say. Good news, theoretically, but it's not quite that simple.
Just over half of those sales went to the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, a plug-in hybrid SUV with all the emissions of a flatulent gnat. It's a huge hit with people who can buy or lease them through companies, thanks largely to several important tax-related advantages. The fact that it's a big, brisk and capable off-roader, and thus very fashionable at the moment, also has a lot to do with it. What's not to like? However, the Outlander PHEV's very specific popularity does somewhat skew the overall figures.
Here's the problem: not many have been sold to private buyers, probably because at the end of the day it's still an expensive SUV when you're buying it yourself. Even after the government sends the dealer a cheque for £5000 (R103 000) off the list price - a temporary deal that's soon to expire - you're still looking at the thick end of £30 000 (R620 000) for an entry-level one. There are cheaper ways to get into hybrid motoring.
CATASTROPHIC SALES RESULTS
But the cheaper routes don't seem to be working either. BMW, Audi, Mercedes, Volvo, Toyota, Nissan/ Renault and others have all put their financial might behind electrification, and yet few are selling anywhere near their targets. The long-established and very pleasant Nissan Leaf sold less than 3000 cars in the UK during the first six months of 2015, while the next best-seller was the BMW i3, with 1111 customers taking delivery - but again, these were reportedly mostly business users.
With that in mind, the man and woman on the street are still choosing en masse not to buy battery-powered cars such as the cheeky Renault Zoe, the marvellous Volkswagen e-Golf and the dinky Peugeot iOn. Nor are they choosing plug-in hybrids such as the Audi A3 e-tron. Trailblazing plug-in twins from Opel ( the Ampera) and Chevrolet (the Volt) have already been consigned to history after catastrophic sales results. Production ceased as soon as General Motors could make it happen. The attempts to appeal to the everyman, then, with affordable electrified motoring, is not working. It never really has, and why should we believe it ever will?
Let's turn our attention to the high-end manufacturers whose hybridisation realities are the stuff of petrolhead dreams. We are living in an age of technological marvels. Look at the electric solutions invented by the likes of Porsche, McLaren and Ferrari in their latest supercars.
They are utterly fascinating, and the essence of futurism that they encapsulate should fill us with barely-contained glee as we wait for the best bits to filter down to more ordinary cars. They should leave us gasping for breath after running to our nearest car dealer to snap up a piece of this astonishing electric ambition.The fact that they're not worries me, and it should worry the industry.
History tells us that if a high-end car or technology is in some way exciting or highly sought-after, the car-buying public follows the lead and buys into the model, or even the brand. The BMW M3 catalysed 3 Series sales and the Golf GTI cemented four decades (and counting) of quiet British Golf-mania. Even Renault used to sell common-or-garden Lagunas based on its success in British Touring Car racing.
WHERE’S THE EXCITEMENT?
It's here that we arrive at the key difference between the primitive and lusty technologies of yesteryear versus the silent science of tomorrow. It seems that the idea of electrification; of spending more money on a car simply to attempt to spend less on running costs, can't match the appeal of straightforward naughtiness. The aforementioned hypercars are as naughty as it gets, but an A3 e-tron just isn't. There's no link from the top step to the bottom.
To expand on the point, take the Opel Vectra. Terrible in almost every way, it still looked like a car you'd seen pounding around a race circuit. A car that captured your imagination and raised your pulse. Admittedly that's not something that any road-going Vectra ever did, but people could go into the showroom and be a little bit excited about buying one.
Can buyers get excited about buying a typical plug-in car? No. They are designed in and for an age where saving fuel and reducing emissions are the main goals. Excitement is, in these most futuristic of machines, becoming just a word thrown carelessly into press releases by marketing types who've never driven the car and probably wouldn't buy one if they had. We're missing the link between electrification and base desirability.
The industry can find a glimmer of hope in motorsport, ever the test bed for better road car technologies. There are four teams running at the top level of the World Endurance Championship using four very different hybrid power systems. Three use petrol, one diesel. Each uses a different kind of all-wheel drive system. There are four, six, and eight-cylinder engines, with different hybrid battery capacities. And yet a system of rules allows them to compete on a level playing field.
Imagine a similar scenario with Audi, Toyota, Nissan et al all fielding works-prepared cars with direct links to the showroom. If it worked like it has in the past, it could fuel electric and plug-in hybrid sales growth in a far more meaningful way than the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV ever can.
The Independent