AP

Wall to wall traffic in Beijing. According to JD Power estimates China, the No.1 auto market, will sell six million more vehicles in 2011 than the United States.

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Global vehicle sales will increase six percent in 2011 to a record 76.5-million new light vehicles, according to statistics guru JD Power and Associates.

Sales in the so-called emerging economies made up more than half of global sales for the first time in 2010, it said, boosting the total to a record 72-million, beating the previous mark of 70-million set in 2007 before a global recession cut into vehicle sales.

Senior vice-president of automotive operations John Humphrey, said “Overall growth in the world economy has been supporting further recovery in auto sales.

“We're seeing signals of stability and increased consumer demand for new vehicles as economic optimism increases.”

Director of global forecasting Jeff Schuster said the cooling of auto sales growth in the emerging markets in 2011 was the major reason global growth was forecast at only six percent in 2011, compared with forecast growth of 11 percent in 2012, when Western Europe and North America were expected to rebound.

Schuster said Europe would experience a drop of two percent in sales in 2011 before recovering to show strong growth in 2012, which would help boost global auto sales to 85-million.

He saw the world's auto market climbing to 90-million in 2013 and surpassing 100-million new vehicle sales in 2015.

According to JD Power estimates China, the No.1 auto market, will sell six million more vehicles in 2011 than the United States. China is forecast to sell 19-million new vehicles in 2011 for a growth rate of 11 percent - down from 33 percent growth in 2009 and 48 percent in 2008. Chinese sales rose from 8.8-million in 2008 to 17.2-million in 2010.

General Motors boss Daniel Akerson said in Beijing on Tuesday: “China is a unique market sitting in what I think is the highest growth area in the world for the next 10, 20, 30 years.”

Schuster said China was the top auto market in volume of sales followed by the United States, Japan, Brazil and Germany - but predicted that by 2015 India would have the third-largest market and Brazil would be fourth.

He forecast that South American economies would show a moderation of sharp increases in sales in recent years.

“The major near-term risks to the region include rising inflation and continuing monetary tightening, a sudden reversal in investor confidence, and a possible credit bubble in Brazil, which is the largest auto market in the region with nearly 75 percent of sales,” he said.

Only four years ago, China's auto market was 8.1 million vehicles - half the US market. By 2009, China was the top market at 13-million as the US market dropped to 10.4-million, its worst showing in nearly three decades.

China's sales in 2010 and 2011 are still nearly all smaller vehicles, while half the US market is in more profitable SUV’s and pickups.

Schuster said profitable luxury vehicles made up less than four percent of the overall Chinese market in 2010, and that would grow slowly over the next few years to about five percent.

Meanwhile, in the US market, premium vehicles were about 14.5 percent of the passenger-car market in 2010, a share that would rise to 17 percent in five years, not including pickups. - Reuters