Leaf will be a player in world market

Nissan Motor Co. chief vehicle engineer Hidetoshi Kadota demonstrates a quick charge of a Nissan Leaf by a solar-assisted EV charging system at Nissan's global headquarters in Yokohama, Japan, Monday, July 11, 2011. Nissan is testing a super-green way to recharge its Leaf electric vehicle using solar power, part of a broader drive to improve electricity storage systems. In the new charging system, electricity is generated through 488 solar cells installed on the roof of the Nissan headquarters building. Four batteries from the Leaf had been placed in a box in a cellar-like part of the building, and store the electricity generated from the solar cells, which is enough to fully charge 1,800 Leaf vehicles a year, according to Nissan. (AP Photo/Koji Sasahara)

Nissan Motor Co. chief vehicle engineer Hidetoshi Kadota demonstrates a quick charge of a Nissan Leaf by a solar-assisted EV charging system at Nissan's global headquarters in Yokohama, Japan, Monday, July 11, 2011. Nissan is testing a super-green way to recharge its Leaf electric vehicle using solar power, part of a broader drive to improve electricity storage systems. In the new charging system, electricity is generated through 488 solar cells installed on the roof of the Nissan headquarters building. Four batteries from the Leaf had been placed in a box in a cellar-like part of the building, and store the electricity generated from the solar cells, which is enough to fully charge 1,800 Leaf vehicles a year, according to Nissan. (AP Photo/Koji Sasahara)

Published Oct 18, 2011

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Nissan expects to make rapid inroads into the global vehicle market with its Leaf electric vehicle, which it plans to launch on the South African market in 2013.

Pierre Loing, vice-president of the product planning and zero-emission business unit at Nissan International, believes zero-emission vehicles will account for 10 percent of global vehicle sales by 2020.

About 70 million vehicles are expected to be sold globally in 2011, so zero emission vehicles would account for seven million of that.

Loing won't predict what portion of the market Nissan will grab with the Leaf, other than "a significant share".

But, he said, Nissan already regarded the Leaf as the first mass-market electric vehicle because 15 000 had been sold globally since its launch at the end of 2010, with about 8000 in the US, 6000 in Japan and 1000 in Europe.

Nissan had a target of 5000 Leaf sales in Europe by the end of 2011, but Loing said this was likely to only be achieved by the end of March 2012 because of disruptions to the production of both the Leaf and its battery, caused by the earthquake and tsunami in Japan earlier in 2010.

However, an indication of the aggressive plans Nissan has for the Leaf are evident from its investment in the project and its production plans for the vehicle.

Loing said Nissan had invested more than $4 billion (R32 billion) in the electric-vehicle project, including the development of the car and battery, and factories. He believed it could achieve a significant share of the zero-emission vehicle market, because between now and 2020 not every manufacturer would have a credible electric car offering.

He said the Leaf and the battery that powered it were launched in 2010 and the model was currently only produced at a Nissan plant in Japan, which had an annual capacity of 50 000 units.

However, Loing said it had very high ambitions for the Leaf in the US and was setting up a factory with a maximum annual capacity of 200 000 units. It was also establishing a plant for the Leaf in the UK with annual capacity of 50 000 units.

These plants would start production in 2013.

From 2013, Loing said, Nissan would have three plants and five battery plants, with the additional battery plants located in Portugal and France.

The launch of the Leaf in Europe was staggered. It was first launched in Ireland, Portugal, the Netherlands, the UK and Switzerland, followed several months ago by its launch in France, Belgium, Spain and some Nordic countries.

Plans include launching it in Finland, Germany and Italy towards the end of 2011 or early in 2012.

Loing said the Leaf was launched first in the countries where Nissan had had the best discussions about incentives from the government, which on average had reduced the price of the vehicle to consumers by about €5000 (R55 000).

The Leaf costs an average of €30 000 in Europe. The government incentives have typically been a lump sum or tax breaks.

Nissan SA managing director Mike Whitfield announced earlier this month that Nissan planned to launch the Leaf in the domestic market in 2013 but stressed that this was subject to confirmation of the government policy on zero emission vehicles, which largely relates to battery charging infrastructure and customer incentives.

Nimrod Zalk, the deputy director-general of the industrial development division at the Department of Trade and Industry, confirmed last week that work was under way to finalise an electric vehicle position paper for consideration by the cabinet.

Zalk said this would include proposals on the creation of a legislative and regulatory environment to allow for the operation of electric vehicles, relevant testing infrastructure for electric vehicles, local manufacturing for domestic and global markets, the initiation of charging infrastructure and educational campaigns on electric vehicles.

The Leaf has a range of 175km. Loing admits this range is a barrier to people considering an electric vehicle because any standard car could easily do an average of 500km with any type of fuel.

However, Loing believes it is possible to overcome this barrier because the car gives the driver so much information about what power is left and the range it can travel with this remaining power.

In addition, Loing said the range of the battery would improve.

Loing said there were overall cost of ownership savings from owning and driving a Leaf.

He said there were fuel cost saving benefits from driving a Leaf, which in the UK costs about €2 per 100km in electricity.

"If you travel 15 000km a year, it will cost you €300 compared with €800 for a diesel powered car and €1 200 for a petrol engine vehicle."

Loing said maintenance of the Leaf was also expected to be cheaper by about 15 percent because it was a simpler car with fewer moving parts.

However, Loing said work still needed to be done to improve the resale value of the car, which was currently too low because of the degradation of the battery.

But Loing said the battery retained at least 80 percent of its capacity after five years and 70 percent after 10 years and was able to operate satisfactorily despite this degradation.

The Leaf uses the friction from braking to recharge the battery while it is being driven.

Loing said the range of a conventional vehicle could vary by about 20 percent dependent on the driving conditions and driving style of the driver, but it could vary as much as 50 percent for an electric vehicle.

"For example, if you are on the highway and never decelerate, an electric vehicle is counterintuitive compared to a conventional car.

"You get the best efficiency from a standard car if you are on a highway driving at 120km/h or on cruise control.

"But this is where you have the worst efficiency for an electric car because it takes a lot of energy out of the battery as you are driving at relatively high speed and the battery never recharges.

"It brings the range down a lot, which is against everything a normal driver knows about fuel saving. On the contrary, if you are in town and do a stop-and-go, then your battery recharges (while driving)." - Business Report

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