South Africans are looking set for another fuel price decrease at the beginning of September, but it might not be as big a drop as some might have expected.
Various media reports on Monday were predicting a 69 c/l decrease, based on fuel price data up to August 12, however the Central Energy Fund's Tuesday report states that by Monday August 15, the over-recovery had fallen to 64.89 cents a litre for petrol and 88.85 c/l for low-sulphur diesel.
While oil prices plotted against motorists during the first half of August, rising from just below $43 a barrel at the beginning of the month to $47.95 on August 16, the rand has worked in our favour, having appreciated from R13.79 on August 1 to R13.26 on August 16.
How things will play out during the second half of the month is anyone's guess, but there is a clear danger that oil prices will continue to rise, which would erode the potential price cut unless the rand continues to gain against the dollar.
Oil prices have strengthened in recent days on expectations that Opec would revive talks on potentially freezing output in an effort to stabilise markets.