Frank Habineza, leader of the sole party opposing President Paul Kagame's attempt to extend his grip on power in Rwanda on Friday, has good reason to be cautious.
When his Democratic Green Party attempted, and failed, to enter presidential elections five years ago, Mr Habineza's deputy, André Kagwa Rwisereka, went missing. His body was later found near a river, almost decapitated.
Mr Rwisereka's family blamed the government for the killing.
The government vehemently denied that. On Friday, Rwandans vote in a referendum on the abolition of term limits that could extend Mr Kagame's presidency - not just into a third term, beginning in 2017, but beyond.
Mr Kagame, whose leadership of the east African nation has been lauded by Tony Blair, could conceivably retain power until 2034.
Now the Western powers that once backed Mr Kagame as an example of progressive and transparent African leadership are having second thoughts.
The US has said it expects him to stand down in 2017.
“President Kagame has an opportunity to set an example for a region in which leaders seem too tempted to view themselves as indispensable to their own countries' trajectories,” Samantha Power, US Ambassador to the United Nations, said.
Born in Uganda, Mr Habineza, who is married with three children, said that when his party was formed in 2009 many people had wanted to leave Mr Kagame's ruling Rwandan Patriotic Front and join his new group.
The RPF, principally made up of ethnic Tutsis, came to power amid efforts at national reconciliation after the 1994 genocide, in which about 800 000 Tutsis and Hutus are thought to have been killed.
Mr Habineza, who warned that without greater democracy Rwanda could follow Burundi into civil war, told The Independent: “We had serious people who joined us [including] my assassinated vice-president. There were others from the RPF. But people viewed joining our party as treason. They asked: 'How can you leave your mother party?'“
The 38-year-old former journalist said he took constant precautions over his security.
They included not drinking alcohol and not visiting nightclubs.
“Of course, we are all very concerned,” he said.
“Even last year one of our national organising secretaries for the party went missing. That, coupled with the assassination of our vice-president, is part of our concerns.
“The risk is high, but what I have been trying to make sure is that I go by the book, respecting all the laws in place. Something could happen to me at home, of course. I try always to be with someone, so I am never alone. I don't eat à la carte, I eat at the buffet. I don't want to order in a restaurant and risk it. I do my best.”
About 60 percent of Rwandans live below the poverty line, with substantial aid being sent from the West. Britain, which regards Rwanda as a key ally in the region and “an African success story”, is its biggest bilateral donor, contributing £66m directly this year and nearly as much again through the EU aid budget.
Mr Kagame has hit back at what he called “other nations” for interfering in Rwanda's affairs.
He said he will wait until after the vote to decide whether to run again in 2017, the pro-government New Times newspaper reported.
Carina Tertsakian, a senior Rwanda researcher at Human Rights Watch, said: “It is difficult to know what many Rwandans really think. The ruling RPF has dominated all aspects of political and public life ever since it ended the genocide, and has imposed tight restrictions on freedom of speech. Several opposition leaders remain in prison. Dissidents inside and outside the country have been murdered, attacked and threatened.”
She added: “In many countries where there is limited political pluralism, or where opposition parties are fragmented or weak, it falls to civil society groups to hold the government to account and to speak out when their leaders cling to power. But in Rwanda, independent civil society organisations are weak because of years of government intimidation, threats and administrative obstacles.”
In 2011, Scotland Yard warned that a “hit squad” had planned to murder two Rwandan exiles living in Britain. One of them was Rene Mugenzi, a genocide survivor who is a British citizen and now runs a London-based social exclusion think-tank. He said yesterday of Mr Kagame: “He will never leave power. Currently Rwandans are not free to choose their leaders. They vote and publicly support any government line, to avoid any harassment and oppression.”
Earlier this week, a Rwandan ex-army captain, David Kabuye, was found guilty of a “public insult” for alleging that Mr Kagame had been responsible for the disappearance of opponents, but was acquitted of the more serious charge of “inciting revolt”. Others face trial for similar allegations. They include members of the military accused of claiming the government was responsible for the murder of Patrick Karegeya, a former spy chief who fell out with Mr Kagame. He fled the country and was found dead in a Johannesburg hotel room.
Mr Habineza insisted the risks were worthwhile. “We are fighting a rightful cause,” he said. “It's not just for the sake of me, but of all Rwandans. We're fighting for democracy.”
He added: “The President has done some remarkable work, economically and after the genocide. We could appreciate him by giving him a national medal of honour.
“But when people stay in power too long, it is a threat to peace and security. People get tired, and when they want to get rid of their leader, they use violence. The leader's grip on power brings more problems and more lives are lost.”
The Independent