Johannesburg - Sudan holds national elections this week that some fear could scupper the country’s faltering national dialogue process, which is intended to end chronic conflicts and mend deep political and social rifts.
Most major opposition parties are boycotting the presidential, legislative and state government polls that begin tomorrow and continue until Wednesday.
President Omar el-Bashir is running again, against 14 other presidential candidates, and his ruling National Congress Party (NCP) is competing with 43 other parties for control of the national assembly and senate.
Both are expected to romp home comfortably because of the absence of much credible opposition, but whether that helps or hinders the country in addressing its underlying problems is the real issue.
Most opposition parties have called for the postponement of the elections until the outcome of a national dialogue with the opposition and civil society, which Bashir last year signalled he would launch under pressure of political protests in Khartoum and other cities and continuing armed rebellions in Darfur, South Kordofan and Blue Nile states.
Among other things, the opposition demands poll reforms to ensure a level political playing field. The voters roll is out of date and the opposition and many outside observers question the independence of the electoral commission.
But Bashir’s government insisted it was obliged to continue with the elections this month because the government’s constitutional mandate was about to expire.
When it became clear that Sudan intended pushing ahead with the elections, former president Thabo Mbeki, who heads the AU High Level Implementation Panel, tried to convene a pre-dialogue preparatory meeting between the government, the opposition and other stakeholders before the elections to try to prevent the elections derailing the national dialogue.
Officials close to the mediation process said they hoped the government would agree that this week’s elections would not forestall new elections if these emerged from the national dialogue. The opposition would then agree they would accept these elections as a necessary evil and would not allow them to undermine their commitment to the national dialogue.
But Bashir’s government declined Mbeki’s invitation to attend the preparatory meeting unless the opposition withdrew its decision to boycott the elections.
This week the international “Troika” – comprising the US, UK and Norway – which is supporting the mediation, issued a statement expressing “great disappointment that a genuine National Dialogue has not begun in Sudan and that environment conducive to participatory and credible elections does not exist.”
It said a comprehensive and inclusive national dialogue was necessary for Sudan to develop a truly representative political system.
“Only through dialogue can the people of Sudan confront fundamental issues of governance, political inclusiveness, resource sharing, national identity and social equality.” The troika said Khartoum had signalled its intention last January to initiate a national dialogue “but has since failed to advance a genuine process in good faith”.
It also criticised the government for rejecting the AU’s invitation to the preparatory meeting.
There was some doubt the AU would send election observers because of concerns this might undermine its impartiality as the mediator of the political conflict. But the AU Commission decided this week it would after all send a mission and its members have begun arriving.
The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa, the International Conference of the Great Lakes Region. (ICGLR) the Arab League and several domestic organisations have also deployed election observer missions to the elections.
Asked if IGAD was not granting legitimacy to a contentious election by sending an observer mission, the head of the IGAD mission, Mohammud Abdulahi of Ethiopia, said Sudan was a member of IGAD and so IGAD felt monitoring the elections would help develop a democratic election culture in Sudan.
There are 13 million Sudanese registered to vote but a member of the IGAD observer mission said it was not clear how many were eligible.
Vote counting is supposed to start on Thursday and the election commission has seven days to announce the results.
Foreign Bureau