Durban – Globally, fears have risen that US President Donald Trump’s recent anti-Islamic sentiments could add fuel to terrorist activity, and now local security analysts have raised concern that South Africa could be a possible Isis target.
Institute for Security Studies (ISS) counter-terrorism researcher Martin Ewi said the organisation was investigating whether Isis would target any of Trump’s South Africa-based investments after his hardline approach to foreign policy. Trump recently tried to ban citizens from seven mainly Muslim countries from entering the US. His order was blocked by a US federal judge.
Ewi said the institute was working on identifying exactly what business interests Trump had in the country.
“Trump’s very hardline approach was good for Isis to justify Isis activity. What this means is that some of the reports (that we get) say they (Isis) will go for Trump's investments in South Africa.”
Ewi would not be drawn into divulging any details about the institute's findings of Trump’s local business interests. However, he said an attack on American-owned entities in South Africa remained a genuine concern.
“It’s just a matter of whether it materialises today or tomorrow,” Ewi said.
He added that he did not think that Isis had a preference regarding attacking an American-owned or a specifically Trump-owned entity.
“What will matter is what they get access to,” Ewi said.
“Even before the US elected Trump, some messages from Isis indicated they wanted Trump to win in order to infuriate more people to help Isis with recruitment. More angry people will turn to alternative means like (joining) these groups,” he said.
The South African Muslim Network said on Monday that anger and resentment for Trump by South African Muslims could be exploited by Islamic State recruiters, who might carry out “false flag operations”.
SA Muslim Network chairman Dr Faisal Suliman said opportunist “demagogues” could prey on the angry and ignorant. He said Muslim imams in South Africa opposed terror activity, but religious texts could be used to woo some members of the public.
“They will say ‘there is a war against Muslims’, and Trump has provided them with a rationale for recruitment. The Bible was used to justify apartheid. Manipulation of religion is not a new phenomenon. I don’t believe that we have a breeding ground for Isis necessarily, but we are concerned over false flag operations, as seen in Europe or the US.”
But political analysts rejected the potential for extremist action in South Africa.
Professor Farid Esack, head of the department of religious studies at the University of Johannesburg, dismissed the idea that the country could be a breeding ground for terror activity.
“It (recruitment) is a risk, and it has been happening, but the numbers are exceptionally low. It’s about 10 times less than Belgium, which has roughly the same proportion of Muslims as South Africa,” Esack said.
He added that even when South Africans had returned from Isis, they had never been violent.
“They resume ordinary lives as chartered accountants, engineers, and so on. Never say never, but objectively speaking there is no need for panic or paranoia,” Esack said.
Dr Lubna Nadvi, a political scientist at the University of KwaZulu-Natal, echoed Esack.
“It is very unlikely that Trump’s actions will incite many South Africans, if any at all, to go and join Isis,” he said.
Nadvi said South Africans would probably respond to Trump’s actions through organised and peaceful resistance campaigns, such as the recent Women’s March.
Last month, the Sunday Times reported that an Isis bomb maker was arrested at a Turkish airport en route to South Africa. State Security Minister David Mahlobo told the newspaper that his men were on high alert.
Hawks spokesperson Brigadier Hangwani Mulaudzi could not be reached for comment on Monday.