Most Americans lied to the various pollsters in almost every state, or at the very least remained numb on all issues relating to the elections, writes Oscar van Heerden.
Johannesburg - Some months ago I indicated to some of my friends that I think the American people in general and the pollsters in particular should take heed of the “Bradley Effect” as it pertains to this 2016 Presidential election.
At the time not many of them knew what this effect that I was referring to was and hence some of them took the time to research or Google it.
In short, in 1982, African American Mayor, Tom Bradley took a decision to contest for the position of Governor of California. His opponent, George Deukmejian, a white American from Armenian decent also decided to run for the position. This was bound to be an exciting contest and polling agencies kicked into high gear to ascertain from the Californian citizens as to their preferred choice.
Needless to say the race took on racial overtures and as such pollsters were very thorough in the polling methodology. As the race heated up, week after week, pollsters were predicting that Bradley would win. In fact days before it was a foregone conclusion that Bradley was firmly in the driving seat.
To add insult to injury, on the voting day, some went as far as calling it in favour of Bradley, declaring him the winner. But as the results trickled in it became apparent for all to see including the pollsters that in fact Deukmejian was the outright winner.
This famously became known as the ‘Bradley Effect’. And dare I say, continues to be studied in Sociology, Psychology and Political Studies to this day. But apparently, the Americans have not learned anything from it, as is now evident with the outcome of the 2016 Presidential race.
Let’s call it for what it is folks, most Americans lied to the various pollsters in almost every state in the Republic or at the very least remained numb on all issues relating to the elections.
They got it wrong with Brexit in the UK and now with all their sophistication and technologies, they got it wrong in the USA. But that’s a discussion for another time perhaps.
So what does a Trump presidency hold in store for us all? No secrets here and certainly none on an unsecured server in Trumps living room either. He has made it very clear that he will be tough on illegal immigration and so we can expect him to follow through with this. It will probably take the form of tougher immigration laws and much more severe check and balances to verify foreign peoples status, and off course the building of a rhetorical wall along the Mexican border. I say rhetorical because I simply don’t think Trump meant a physical wall, what I do think he is saying is impenetrable border access, whatever form this will take. I might be wrong but let’s see.
On the issues effecting minorities, the Hispanics and African American citizens though extremely racist at times, Trump was merely also appealing to all Americans about the plight of the rest of America
Though pain is being experienced by minorities especially during this race so too has pain been felt for many years by hard working class and yes white Americans and for far too long this pain has simply been ignored. Only to be awakened by the election of Barack Obama. Who I must say at this point went all out for Hillary Clinton, unprecedented support for a candidate from a sitting President, even if she was from his party.
The Obamas, and yes I include Michelle, because of their popularity in the country thought they can decide who the next President will be and it simply back fired. Obama spent so much time in North Carolina one would have thought he sewed up that support base, in particular the majority black vote, it was not to be. He did not deliver to the African American voters during his tenure and so why would they now put their fate in the hands of Hillary Clinton, only to get more of the same.
And so, Trump putting the pain of white working class people out there resonated with the electorate. We also all know that if you want to appeal to the religious Bible belt types then you simply must be clear on abortion and Homosexuality.
I don’t agree with Trump and his ridiculous utterances in this regard but it did bring him those crucial votes and everyone knows, there’s so much to do to run the world that he could be forgiven to not get to these two issue in particular in time but I’m sure he will tell them I’ll get to them in my next term of office. And you know what, they are that gullible.
On foreign policy, Trump raises a number of interesting approaches. Let’s start with the obvious one, the bogey man, Putin. According to the establishment, Trump’s new best friend. “ I don’t know Putin” says Donald during one of the Presidential debates. And indeed he does not, the bogey man tactic by the Clinton campaign simply did not work for them, they have not realised that the cold war is over.
The hacking of the National Convention system by the Russians is as much to be blamed on the many Intelligence agencies in the USA. How could they have allowed it, where they asleep at the wheel?
Trump is saying that the reality is that Al Qaeda and now ISIS are as a direct result of American foreign policy in the Middle East region and that a serious relook is needed as to the approach and objectives of the USA. He states rightly or wrongly that he thinks that Assad and Putin is doing a better job at fighting ISIS both in Aleppo and elsewhere. Let’s not forget that Clinton thinks its ok to support rebel forces in Syria who is fighting towards overthrowing the Assad government, and somehow that’s ok but Assad fighting to remain in power with the help of Russia and Iran are war crimes.
The people of Syria and others in the region are at the receiving end of the carnage and violence and the question is when will it all stop. Hence Trump is also taking aim at NATO and its role in global security matters. It’s a huge expense on the American tax payer and he wants to know how can they reconfigure it in order to extract maximum benefit from it. The military industrial complex in the US are surely going to benefit hugely from a Trump Presidency, don’t get me wrong, but it will be based on a different set of rules that they and the traditional allies are use too.
Less boots on the ground anywhere in the world, much more drones and certainly better tactical and strategic nuclear warheads. I think that will be Trump’s emphasis, since he never served in the armed forces either.
As far as the US economy is concerned, much will have to change according to Trump.
Trade agreements will have to be renegotiated and this is easier said than done off course but he will start the process. If anything, Trump will have to deliver on this front. It’s less emphasis on ‘Big Business’ and their needs and more on what is in the best interests of the average American. iPhones, Automobiles, just manufacturing in general must come back into the numerous towns and counties in order to create more jobs. Will he succeed in this globalised world, where cheap labour reside in the far east, I’m not sure, but this is the single biggest reason why Americans came out in their numbers to vote for change.
Change, Trump promised them. This will by far be the biggest consideration over the next four years for the Trump Presidency.
The Bradley Effect has now come and gone, everyone is licking their wounds and the Establishment, Hollywood, Media outlets and indeed some Republicans will begin with the 5 stages of grief. Hopefully they have completed the first stage, Denial. They held out for as long as they could during the last few hours of the election results and finally had to accept, with Clinton conceding. I do hope like her vote it was an equally humbling experience for her. I’m sure we are now entering the stage of anger in America, anger but hopefully also an acknowledgment that indeed the USA is a deeply divided society. The third stage, bargaining will have to begin almost immediately, the political elite class, big business and indeed all Americans, the interpersonal, will have to begin bargaining. Accommodating each other and take stock of the deeply divisive issues that this election brought to the fore.
In in so doing, I’m sure the fourth stage will happen, depression. This could take a number of years but if all Americans want to make America great again, this stage will have to be short lived and everyone will have to get working on repairing America again. Only if this happens and only if Trump realise that the Presidency is bigger than any one man, will Americans experience the last stage of grief, acceptance.
We get the government we deserve. It was Abraham Lincoln that said, if you want to test a man’s character, give him power. Well this is it, Trump has the power, let’s see how it will inevitably shape his character. And maybe just maybe, Trump himself will remember when sitting in that auspices oval office that, “ We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness”.
* Dr Oscar van Heerden is an international relations scholar. He writes in his personal capacity.
** The views expressed here are not necessarily those of Independent Media.
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