Johannesburg - President Jacob Zuma’s future as leader of the ANC is set to be challenged from within as the fallout over the local government elections ripples through the party. The ANC’s dismal performance in key metros in the elections sent shock waves through the leadership and raised fears about the 2019 general election.
The final results released by the IEC on Saturday night confirmed the ANC had lost Nelson Mandela Bay and Tshwane to the DA, and needed a coalition to govern Joburg, Ekurhuleni and Rustenburg, a testament to how the party’s star was waning under Zuma’s leadership.
In an interview on Friday, ANC heavyweight Aziz Pahad said there was an urgent need for the total renewal of the party, describing the ANC loss of the Bay as a “huge blow”.
“There were surprises expected,” he said. “But I don’t think the leadership could have expected us to lose the metro. The movement cannot ignore the message we are getting.”
Independent Media understands there may be calls from within the national executive committee (NEC) for an early or special conference where an “elegant exit” for Zuma should be finalised, with concerns growing that his continuation at the helm of the party will cost the ANC dearly in 2019.
At least four NEC members said the party’s performance had emboldened the resolve of those within the mainly pro-Zuma NEC to challenge Zuma and his supporters about how he was costing the party.
There was serious discontent about the cost of Zuma’s leadership, including the damage to state institutions in the justice and security cluster, and the endemic corruption in state-owned enterprises.
“There are serious concerns that the longer he remains at the helm puts us at risk of losing power in 2019.
“The warning signs have been there about how we were on the verge of losing the metros, which is precisely because our supporters are unhappy with his leadership. The opposition beat us because our supporters didn’t come out to vote for us, we cannot afford to risk that with the 2019 elections,” said one NEC member.
Independent Media this week saw an SMS circulating among senior leaders of the ANC after Nelson Mandela Bay was declared as having fallen to the DA and the neck-and-neck battle in Gauteng metros. It read: “Someone must resign.”
The NEC is due to meet for a lekgotla this weekend, which will be the first meeting of the party’s highest decision-making body between conferences following the elections.
But any attempt to try dislodging Zuma will be resisted as he remains very strong in the ANC and continues to have an interest in how the party’s 2017 national conference decides its new leadership.
Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma has been touted as the candidate favoured by the president, but the grouping looking for an alternative finds itself without a candidate as Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa has not yet committed to taking on Dlamini Zuma.
It is understood there is also a massive push for a generational change in the top leadership led by younger and emerging heavyweights, such as KwaZulu-Natal ANC chairman Sihle Zikalala. This push may swing the pendulum back to the influential KwaZulu-Natal bloc and the “Premier League”.
One NEC Zuma supporter said those wanting to blame him for the outcome of the elections would struggle to make “a persuasive argument” because there were multiple factors that had led to the party losing support.
Another NEC leader said there was a lot of uncertainty about how deep the fallout over the election may run, with talks that Zuma could still strike first against key individuals who may want his position challenged. The leader hinted at a possible cabinet reshuffle as the pre-emptive strike.
“That is the danger we are facing, because those kinds of things have a possibility to destabilise the organisation and deepen the crisis.”
“You don’t want to see the movement tearing itself apart before an elective conference, while the opposition prepares to take power in 2019,” said another NEC member.
He warned there may be moves to shift the blame of the party’s loss of Gauteng metros on to the Gauteng leadership, whose relationship with Zuma has remained difficult. There has been talk in the ANC of disbanding the Gauteng provincial executive, in a move to destabilise the most strident anti-Zuma base in the party.
On Friday, ANC secretary-general Gwede Mantashe denied suggestions that there would be retribution for either individuals or structures of the ANC, calling the speculation “rumours”.
“What I normally don’t want is to discuss rumours, because when you want me to discuss rumours you are going to make me chase my own tail.
“There’s no decision to actually dissolve the structures of Gauteng. There’s no such a decision, it is a rumour,” said Mantashe.
He accepted that the scandals such as the SABC saga and Nkandla had contributed to the disgruntlement of urban voters, but he defended the ANC’s handling of the issue. “If you talk about the issues as being factors I will accept that, but when you add failure to act according to the rule of law I will deny that because when the court announced that, (it) was readily accepted. On the SABC, it would be very unfair for people to criticise the ANC. We have stated our position and we took a stand on the dismissal of workers.”
He said the results would feature at the NEC meeting and dismissed suggestions of a cabinet reshuffle.
Elections Bureau