Can Gauteng regain its influence?

03/10/2014. Delegates taking part in the 12th provincial conference of the Gauteng ANC sing and dance before the start of the conference. Picture: Masi Losi

03/10/2014. Delegates taking part in the 12th provincial conference of the Gauteng ANC sing and dance before the start of the conference. Picture: Masi Losi

Published Oct 5, 2014

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Johannesburg - On the sidelines of the ANC’s 2012 Mangaung conference, right after the nomination process for the new leadership, ANC leaders who were not supporting President Jacob Zuma’s re-election were taken to task by their supporters.

This followed the disintegration of their Gauteng-led slate, which had former ANC deputy president Kgalema Motlanthe contesting for the ANC presidency.

At the last minute, inside the plenary hall, Thandi Modise declined nomination on the Kgalema Motlanthe slate, while Mathews Phosa and Tokyo Sexwale both stood for the deputy president position.

It was tragic, if not to a certain extent laughable.

However, very importantly, it was also indicative of the state of the organisation in Gauteng, which had always been very influential, both in leadership and the policy direction of the party.

Although the province was mostly in support of Motlanthe, a significant number of leaders and membership supported Zuma’s re-election.

These included the likes of former premier Nomvula Mokonyane and former provincial deputy secretary Humphrey Mmemezi.

As the premier of the province then, Mokonyane was not part of the ANC provincial leadership and was increasingly isolated.

Mmemezi, on the other hand, went to Mangaung jobless after he was forced to resign from his position after allegations of the misuse of funds emerged.

At branch level, the situation was scary. Enemy lines had been drawn, factionalism was thriving, long-term comrades had turned into foes and the province was split down the middle.

For many, the writing was on the wall that the province was fighting an unwinnable battle against the Zuma faction’s dominance of the party.

As Gauteng held its first provincial conference after Mangaung this weekend, it should not be unexpected perhaps that this gathering would be looked at in the context of the province’s recent history in the Zuma-led ANC.

Even more so because, although both the national and provincial leadership have claimed synergy between the two structures, tensions have defined this relationship since Mangaung – and even before.

It also appeared that Gauteng had also strained relations with other provinces, making it appear isolated within the broader ANC.

But can Gauteng bounce back and have a meaningful influence at the party’s 2015 National General Council (NGC) and both the policy and national conferences to be held in 2017?

Political analyst Ralph Mathekga says the Gauteng ANC can only have a meaningful influence in the ANC’s upcoming gatherings and processes if it can get above factional politics.

According to Mathekga, the party should be focusing on the next local government election as its most immediate priority as it was in real danger of losing key metros.

“They have to strengthen their structures at provincial and local level so that they are a united force. In terms of local government, they have been found wanting.

“It’s about how they frame their challenges, whether they can move forward as a unit.

“One of the things that made them lose Mangaung in the way that they did was the disunity in the province.

“They were not a united structure, but rather a conglomeration of regions who were not speaking in one voice. That determined how seriously their other provincial counterparts considered them,” said Mathekga.

He said it was too unrealistic to believe the provincial conference could heal the perceived rift between Gauteng and Luthuli House.

“You simply have to look how (Paul) Mashatile spoke about the e-tolls at the conference. He was basically saying they are not going to be dictated to by Luthuli House on policies that were hurting them in the province.

“That was a swipe at Luthuli House because Sanral is implementing policies of the ANC government,” said Mathekga.

Unisa political analyst Professor Dirk Kotze said policy proposals emanating from the provincial conference were unlikely to have much of an impact at the NGC as it was not a policy-making meeting.

According to Kotze, the furthest they could go was to challenge the ANC to review the policy of implementing e-tolls as the NGC was the platform to review policy, not to change it.

“If the e-tolls review panel’s assessment comes out saying e-tolls are to the detriment of Gauteng residents, they could use that to have the policy reviewed. But as far as their other policy proposals go, it is still too early to say they may influence them quite seriously.

“The discussion documents for the NGC come from the subcommittees and there are no provincial representations there. It’s too early to say they can go on to seriously influence direction,” he said.

According to Kotze, this weekend’s provincial conference was more about consolidating the power of Mashatile and Premier David Makhura.

“If they are voted back in, especially uncontested, it means Zuma’s faction in the province has been crushed and that the provincial leadership still has the support of most of their membership,” he said.

Another political analyst, Professor Susan Booysen, said Gauteng’s influence in the ANC going forward would depend on how the provinces line up.

She said though it was an important province, it needed the support of provinces like KwaZulu-Natal on leadership preference.

Booysen was scathing on the idea of ideological contestations within the ANC, saying they hardly exist.

“The preoccupation is mainly on leadership because there are hardly contestations on ideas and policies. At policy level they agree on most things. Look at the second transition debate at Mangaung. It was much noise about nothing, really.

“The main contestations in 2017 will be around the leadership issues, and that is where Gauteng will want to have an influence.

“That on its own will depend on the numbers they have. If they are having the same preferences (as) KwaZulu-Natal, for example, they will manage to influence who the new leadership of the party becomes,” said Booysen .

She said the ANC had managed so far to keep support in various provinces, especially in rural areas. However, its concern about how it was failing to keep support in Gauteng could actually count in favour of the Gauteng ANC.

“In another way, it could be in their favour because the national leadership will be under pressure to show they take people in Gauteng seriously, and to do that they will have to take the ANC in Gauteng seriously,” Booysen said.

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